ScoreProb
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord Germany NOFV-Nord - 11 2026

Sparta Lichtenberg vs Anker Wismar

Sparta Lichtenberg Home · Elo 1,464
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Anker Wismar Away · Elo 1,478
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Anker Wismar win
Sparta Lichtenberg win
35.5%
Draw
20.1%
Anker Wismar winPick
44.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.3%
No31.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.8%
Under 2.522.2%

How much we know

Sparta Lichtenberg history46 matches
Anker Wismar history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Anker Wismar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,464 against 1,478. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sparta Lichtenberg score more

    2.59 goals a game over 46 matches for Sparta Lichtenberg, against 1.75 over 48 for Anker Wismar.

  • Anker Wismar concede fewer

    Sparta Lichtenberg concede 2.43 a game, Anker Wismar 2.13.

  • Sparta Lichtenberg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    85% of Sparta Lichtenberg matches, against 75% for Anker Wismar. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sparta Lichtenberg
Anker Wismar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1463.6
ELO
1478.3
46
ELO · Matches
48
1463.6
Current Team ELO
1478.3
1478.3
Current Opponent ELO
1463.6
-14.62
Current ELO Difference
14.62
0.48
Expected score
0.52
46
History Matches
48
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.25
Overperformance
48.98
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
2.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.06
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
48
1.30
PPG
1.25
39.1%
Win rate
35.4%
13.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
47.8%
Loss rate
45.8%
97.8%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
84.8%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
69.6%
Over 3.5 rate
47.9%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
22
1.78
PPG
0.73
52.2%
Win rate
18.2%
21.7%
Draw rate
18.2%
26.1%
Loss rate
63.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
91.3%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
82.6%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.59
Goals for per game
1.75
95.7%
Scoring rate
89.6%
82.6%
BTTS rate
72.9%
3.30
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
86.4%
91.3%
BTTS rate
81.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
48
2.59
Goals Mean
1.75
1.74
Goals Std
1.11
95.7%
Scored 1+ rate
89.6%
65.2%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
43.5%
Scored 3+ rate
29.2%
3.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.43
Goals against per game
2.13
87.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
2.22
Goals against per game
2.82
91.3%
Conceding rate
90.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
48
2.43
Conceded Mean
2.13
1.68
Conceded Std
1.92
67.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.3%
45.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
2.22
Venue Conceded Mean
2.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
4.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.4%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
4.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.4%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
48
0.90
Result entropy
0.95
2.54
Goal Difference Std
2.34
10.29
Stability score
5.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
48
16
Lead Matches
15
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
46.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.56
16
Trailing Matches
14
25.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
1.22
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.09
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.37
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
1.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.02
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.80
19
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.16
Portability PPG Range
0.49
86.09
Portability Score
67.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-14.62
PPG0.05
GF0.84
GA0.31
PPG-2.00
PPG1.06
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.84
Goals Std0.63
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate15.2%
Scored 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std1.00
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.06
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score4.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.22
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate34.6%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate10.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score18.76
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.56
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-14.62
Current Opponent ELO14.62
Current ELO Difference-29.25
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sparta Lichtenberg

W
Tennis Borussia1–2Sparta Lichtenberg1 Nov · away
Pick: Tennis Borussia 50% · missed
W
Sparta Lichtenberg2–0Makkabi24 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Lichtenberg 46% · hit
D
FC Lok Stendal1–1Sparta Lichtenberg18 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Lichtenberg 44% · missed
L
Sparta Lichtenberg1–3BAK '0730 Aug · home
Pick: Sparta Lichtenberg 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Anker Wismar

W
Anker Wismar2–1Reinickendorfer Fuchse1 Nov · home
Pick: Anker Wismar 61% · hit
L
Optik Rathenow5–0Anker Wismar24 Oct · away
Pick: Anker Wismar 44% · missed
D
Anker Wismar0–0Siedenbollentin17 Oct · home
Pick: Anker Wismar 54% · missed
L
Anker Wismar1–2Makkabi29 Aug · home
Pick: Anker Wismar 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sparta Lichtenberg and Anker Wismar meet in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sparta Lichtenberg win 35.5%, draw 20.1%, Anker Wismar win 44.4%. The pick is Anker Wismar win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.8%. Both teams to score: 68.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.