ScoreProb
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord Germany NOFV-Nord - 11 2026

Neustrelitz vs FC Lok Stendal

Neustrelitz Home · Elo 1,529
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Lok Stendal Away · Elo 1,442
Parkstadion, Neustrelitz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Neustrelitz win
Neustrelitz winPick
57.5%
Draw
21.6%
FC Lok Stendal win
20.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.7%
No35.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.6%
Under 2.527.4%

How much we know

Neustrelitz history50 matches
FC Lok Stendal history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Neustrelitz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Neustrelitz are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,442. On rating alone Neustrelitz would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Neustrelitz score more

    2.08 goals a game over 50 matches for Neustrelitz, against 1.53 over 34 for FC Lok Stendal.

  • Neustrelitz concede fewer

    Neustrelitz concede 1.68 a game, FC Lok Stendal 2.03.

  • Neustrelitz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Neustrelitz matches, against 62% for FC Lok Stendal. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Neustrelitz
FC Lok Stendal
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1528.8
ELO
1441.7
50
ELO · Matches
34
1528.8
Current Team ELO
1441.7
1441.7
Current Opponent ELO
1528.8
87.16
Current ELO Difference
-87.16
0.62
Expected score
0.38
50
History Matches
34
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.08
52.05
Overperformance
44.68
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
3.20
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
34
1.50
PPG
1.06
44.0%
Win rate
29.4%
18.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
38.0%
Loss rate
52.9%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.2%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
46.0%
Over 3.5 rate
52.9%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
17
2.00
PPG
0.59
60.0%
Win rate
11.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
23.5%
20.0%
Loss rate
64.7%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
52.0%
Over 3.5 rate
58.8%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
25
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.08
Goals for per game
1.53
82.0%
Scoring rate
67.6%
66.0%
BTTS rate
52.9%
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
70.6%
60.0%
BTTS rate
64.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
34
2.08
Goals Mean
1.53
1.71
Goals Std
1.52
82.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
62.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.1%
28.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
2.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
2.03
80.0%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.24
Goals against per game
2.53
76.0%
Conceding rate
94.1%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
34
1.68
Conceded Mean
2.03
1.42
Conceded Std
1.34
44.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
67.6%
26.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.3%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
2.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
34
0.94
Result entropy
0.91
2.30
Goal Difference Std
2.19
5.56
Stability score
8.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
32
17
Lead Matches
6
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.89
11
Trailing Matches
13
9.1%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.77
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.89
26
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.02
1.77
Portability PPG Range
0.04
39.84
Portability Score
96.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO87.16
PPG0.44
GF0.55
GA-0.35
PPG1.00
PPG1.41
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate14.4%
Scored 2+ rate17.9%
Scored 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-1.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches16
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-3.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate1.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.74
Portability PPG Range1.73
Portability Score-56.71
Rest days1.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.87
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO87.16
Current Opponent ELO-87.16
Current ELO Difference174.3
Expected score0.25
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Neustrelitz

L
Hertha Zehlendorf3–0Neustrelitz30 Oct · away
Pick: Hertha Zehlendorf 48% · hit
D
Neustrelitz0–0Union Klosterfelde25 Oct · home
Pick: Neustrelitz 50% · missed
W
Neustrelitz2–0Mecklenburg Schwerin18 Oct · home
Pick: Neustrelitz 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Lok Stendal

L
FC Lok Stendal0–4Eintracht Mahlsdorf1 Nov · home
Pick: Eintracht Mahlsdorf 40% · hit
D
BAK '071–1FC Lok Stendal25 Oct · away
Pick: BAK '07 57% · missed
D
FC Lok Stendal1–1Sparta Lichtenberg18 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Lichtenberg 44% · missed
W
Hansa Rostock II1–2FC Lok Stendal30 Aug · away
Pick: Hansa Rostock II 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Neustrelitz and FC Lok Stendal meet in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Parkstadion, Neustrelitz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Neustrelitz win 57.5%, draw 21.6%, FC Lok Stendal win 20.9%. The pick is Neustrelitz win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.6%. Both teams to score: 64.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.