ScoreProb
Liga 1 Indonesia Round 9 2026

Bali United vs Persik Kediri

Bali United Home · Elo 1,526
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Persik Kediri Away · Elo 1,449
Kapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium, Gianyar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bali United win
Bali United winPick
50.4%
Draw
21.8%
Persik Kediri win
27.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Bali United history50 matches
Persik Kediri history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bali United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bali United are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,526 against 1,449. On rating alone Bali United would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Bali United score more

    1.56 goals a game over 50 matches for Bali United, against 1.19 over 48 for Persik Kediri.

  • Bali United concede fewer

    Bali United concede 1.44 a game, Persik Kediri 1.69.

  • Persik Kediri games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Bali United matches, against 65% for Persik Kediri. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bali United
Persik Kediri
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1526.4
ELO
1449.0
50
ELO · Matches
48
1526.4
Current Team ELO
1449.0
1449.0
Current Opponent ELO
1526.4
77.35
Current ELO Difference
-77.35
0.61
Expected score
0.39
50
History Matches
48
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.69
Overperformance
46.39
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
48
1.40
PPG
1.02
38.0%
Win rate
25.0%
26.0%
Draw rate
27.1%
36.0%
Loss rate
47.9%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
54.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.38
PPG
0.67
33.3%
Win rate
16.7%
37.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
29.2%
Loss rate
66.7%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
1.19
74.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
54.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.46
Goals for per game
0.92
62.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.8%
BTTS rate
54.2%
50
History Matches
48
1.56
Goals Mean
1.19
1.39
Goals Std
0.95
74.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.44
Goals against per game
1.69
70.0%
Conceding rate
85.4%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.92
62.5%
Conceding rate
83.3%
50
History Matches
48
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.27
Conceded Std
1.19
42.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
28.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.9%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
48
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.58
1.17
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
48
15
Lead Matches
12
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.86
17
Trailing Matches
16
23.5%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
81.83
Rest days
169.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.43
81.08
Portability Score
69.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO77.35
PPG0.38
GF0.37
GA-0.25
PPG0.71
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate12.8%
Scored 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-2.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate11.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score11.29
Rest days-87.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO77.35
Current Opponent ELO-77.35
Current ELO Difference154.7
Expected score0.22
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bali United

W
Arema FC1–3Bali United31 Oct · away
Pick: Arema FC 52% · missed
D
Persita1–1Bali United25 Oct · away
Pick: Bali United 41% · missed
W
Bali United5–0Garudayaksa21 Oct · home
Pick: Bali United 48% · hit
L
Java United3–2Bali United16 Oct · away
Pick: Bali United 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Persik Kediri

L
Persik Kediri1–5Persita31 Oct · home
Pick: Persik Kediri 37% · missed
L
Persija2–1Persik Kediri26 Oct · away
Pick: Persija 68% · hit
W
Persik Kediri2–1PSS Sleman22 Oct · home
Pick: PSS Sleman 41% · missed
L
Persib Bandung1–0Persik Kediri18 Oct · away
Pick: Persib Bandung 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bali United and Persik Kediri meet in Liga 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. The match is played at Kapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium, Gianyar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bali United win 50.4%, draw 21.8%, Persik Kediri win 27.8%. The pick is Bali United win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.