ScoreProb
Liga 1 Indonesia Round 9 2026

PSS Sleman vs Bhayangkara FC

PSS Sleman Home · Elo 1,565
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bhayangkara FC Away · Elo 1,530
Maguwoharjo Stadium, Yogyakarta Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: PSS Sleman win
PSS Sleman winPick
55.9%
Draw
20.3%
Bhayangkara FC win
23.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

PSS Sleman history42 matches
Bhayangkara FC history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why PSS Sleman are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • PSS Sleman are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,565 against 1,530. On rating alone PSS Sleman would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • PSS Sleman score more

    1.74 goals a game over 42 matches for PSS Sleman, against 1.45 over 40 for Bhayangkara FC.

  • Defences are close

    PSS Sleman concede 1.19 a game, Bhayangkara FC 1.25.

  • PSS Sleman games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of PSS Sleman matches, against 50% for Bhayangkara FC. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
PSS Sleman
Bhayangkara FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.8
ELO
1529.6
42
ELO · Matches
40
1564.8
Current Team ELO
1529.6
1529.6
Current Opponent ELO
1564.8
35.28
Current ELO Difference
-35.28
0.55
Expected score
0.45
42
History Matches
40
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
55.18
Overperformance
52.14
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.50
2.20
Goals for per game
2.30
0.70
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
40
1.64
PPG
1.50
47.6%
Win rate
42.5%
21.4%
Draw rate
22.5%
31.0%
Loss rate
35.0%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.5%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
21
1.90
PPG
1.10
57.1%
Win rate
28.6%
19.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
23.8%
Loss rate
47.6%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.74
Goals for per game
1.45
83.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
61.9%
BTTS rate
57.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
61.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
42
History Matches
40
1.74
Goals Mean
1.45
1.42
Goals Std
1.34
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
1.25
73.8%
Conceding rate
72.5%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.48
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
42
History Matches
40
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.22
Conceded Std
1.13
23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.5%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
40
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
2.07
Goal Difference Std
1.83
4.75
Stability score
2.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
40
21
Lead Matches
16
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.83
9
Trailing Matches
14
44.4%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.9
Rest days
169.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
20
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.39
50.00
Portability Score
71.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO35.28
PPG0.14
GF0.29
GA-0.06
PPG0.81
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate12.5%
Scored 3+ rate11.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score1.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.50
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate8.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.61
Portability Score-21.83
Rest days13.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO35.28
Current Opponent ELO-35.28
Current ELO Difference70.55
Expected score0.10
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

PSS Sleman

L
Garudayaksa3–1PSS Sleman1 Nov · away
Pick: PSS Sleman 43% · missed
L
PSS Sleman1–2Pusamania Borneo27 Oct · home
Pick: Pusamania Borneo 46% · hit
L
Persik Kediri2–1PSS Sleman22 Oct · away
Pick: PSS Sleman 41% · missed
D
Persebaya Surabaya2–2PSS Sleman18 Oct · away
Pick: Persebaya Surabaya 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bhayangkara FC

L
Java United2–0Bhayangkara FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Java United 55% · hit
D
Bhayangkara FC0–0PSM Makassar26 Oct · home
Pick: PSM Makassar 42% · missed
W
Bhayangkara FC1–0PSIM Yogyakarta20 Oct · home
Pick: Bhayangkara FC 38% · hit
D
Persepam Madura Utd3–3Bhayangkara FC16 Oct · away
Pick: Persepam Madura Utd 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

PSS Sleman and Bhayangkara FC meet in Liga 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. The match is played at Maguwoharjo Stadium, Yogyakarta. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: PSS Sleman win 55.9%, draw 20.3%, Bhayangkara FC win 23.9%. The pick is PSS Sleman win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.