ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 10 2026

Balsicas Atlético vs Olímpico Totana

Balsicas Atlético Home · Elo 1,480
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olímpico Totana Away · Elo 1,555
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Balsicas Atlético win
Balsicas Atlético winPick
46.2%
Draw
28.0%
Olímpico Totana win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.5%
No52.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.3%
Under 2.559.7%

How much we know

Balsicas Atlético history49 matches
Olímpico Totana history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Balsicas Atlético are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Olímpico Totana are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,480. On rating alone Olímpico Totana would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Olímpico Totana score more

    1.16 goals a game over 49 matches for Balsicas Atlético, against 1.30 over 37 for Olímpico Totana.

  • Olímpico Totana concede fewer

    Balsicas Atlético concede 1.16 a game, Olímpico Totana 0.81.

  • Balsicas Atlético games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Balsicas Atlético matches, against 32% for Olímpico Totana. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Balsicas Atlético
Olímpico Totana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.6
ELO
1555.5
49
ELO · Matches
37
1479.6
Current Team ELO
1555.5
1555.5
Current Opponent ELO
1479.6
-75.91
Current ELO Difference
75.91
0.39
Expected score
0.61
49
History Matches
37
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
48.35
Overperformance
54.59
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
0.70
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
37
1.27
PPG
1.68
32.7%
Win rate
43.2%
28.6%
Draw rate
37.8%
38.8%
Loss rate
18.9%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
32.4%
16.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.2%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
19
1.54
PPG
1.74
41.7%
Win rate
47.4%
29.2%
Draw rate
31.6%
29.2%
Loss rate
21.1%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.9%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
31.6%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
10.5%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.99
24
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.16
Goals for per game
1.30
71.4%
Scoring rate
75.7%
55.1%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.21
87.5%
Scoring rate
73.7%
70.8%
BTTS rate
47.4%
49
History Matches
37
1.16
Goals Mean
1.30
1.09
Goals Std
1.06
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.7%
26.5%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.16
Goals against per game
0.81
71.4%
Conceding rate
62.2%
1.08
Goals against per game
0.79
75.0%
Conceding rate
63.2%
49
History Matches
37
1.16
Conceded Mean
0.81
1.02
Conceded Std
0.73
30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.9%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
0.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
37
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.18
0.72
Stability score
4.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
37
13
Lead Matches
12
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.78
15
Trailing Matches
7
26.7%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
154.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
22
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.27
Portability PPG Std
—
0.53
Portability PPG Range
—
65.19
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-75.91
PPG-0.41
GF-0.13
GA0.35
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches12
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches12
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate12.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches12
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score-4.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate2.6%
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days27.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-75.91
Current Opponent ELO75.91
Current ELO Difference-151.8
Expected score-0.22
History Matches12
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Balsicas Atlético

W
Balsicas Atlético2–1Cartagena LU II25 Oct · home
Pick: Balsicas Atlético 34% · hit
W
Balsicas Atlético4–1Bullas Deportivo14 Oct · home
Pick: Balsicas Atlético 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Olímpico Totana

L
Olímpico Totana1–3Santomera1 Nov · home
Pick: Olímpico Totana 41% · missed
W
Bullas Deportivo1–3Olímpico Totana25 Oct · away
Pick: Bullas Deportivo 35% · missed
W
Olímpico Totana1–0UCAM Murcia II4 Oct · home
Pick: UCAM Murcia II 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Balsicas Atlético and Olímpico Totana meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Balsicas Atlético win 46.2%, draw 28.0%, Olímpico Totana win 25.8%. The pick is Balsicas Atlético win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.3%. Both teams to score: 47.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.