ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 10 2026

Santomera vs Mazarrón FC

Santomera Home · Elo 1,448
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mazarrón FC Away · Elo 1,543
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Santomera win
Santomera winPick
48.2%
Draw
23.7%
Mazarrón FC win
28.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Santomera history54 matches
Mazarrón FC history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Santomera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mazarrón FC are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,448. On rating alone Mazarrón FC would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 54 matches for Santomera, against 1.40 over 35 for Mazarrón FC.

  • Mazarrón FC concede fewer

    Santomera concede 1.59 a game, Mazarrón FC 1.00.

  • Santomera games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Santomera matches, against 31% for Mazarrón FC. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Santomera
Mazarrón FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.9
ELO
1543.1
54
ELO · Matches
35
1447.9
Current Team ELO
1543.1
1543.1
Current Opponent ELO
1447.9
-95.21
Current ELO Difference
95.21
0.37
Expected score
0.63
54
History Matches
35
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
46.75
Overperformance
54.07
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.30
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
35
1.24
PPG
1.54
33.3%
Win rate
37.1%
24.1%
Draw rate
42.9%
42.6%
Loss rate
20.0%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
31.4%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
17
1.18
PPG
1.41
32.1%
Win rate
29.4%
21.4%
Draw rate
52.9%
46.4%
Loss rate
17.6%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
28
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.40
68.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
53.7%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.29
60.7%
Scoring rate
76.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
54
History Matches
35
1.37
Goals Mean
1.40
1.28
Goals Std
1.20
68.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
40.7%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.59
Goals against per game
1.00
79.6%
Conceding rate
68.6%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.18
82.1%
Conceding rate
76.5%
54
History Matches
35
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.30
Conceded Std
0.89
46.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.9%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
35
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.46
2.37
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
35
16
Lead Matches
11
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.82
12
Trailing Matches
8
8.3%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.90
Rest days
168.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
28
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.38
Portability PPG Std
—
0.91
Portability PPG Range
—
56.92
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-95.21
PPG-0.30
GF-0.03
GA0.59
PPG-0.23
PPG0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches19
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate9.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches19
Conceded Mean0.59
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate9.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches19
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.46
Stability score-1.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.67
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-90.35
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Current Team ELO-95.21
Current Opponent ELO95.21
Current ELO Difference-190.4
Expected score-0.27
History Matches19
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Santomera

W
Olímpico Totana1–3Santomera1 Nov · away
Pick: Olímpico Totana 41% · missed
W
Santomera4–0San Javier24 Oct · home
Pick: Santomera 70% · hit
W
Atlético Pulpileño2–3Santomera4 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mazarrón FC

L
Algar2–1Mazarrón FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Algar 35% · hit
L
Mazarrón FC0–1SFC Minerva4 Oct · home
Pick: Mazarrón FC 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Santomera and Mazarrón FC meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Santomera win 48.2%, draw 23.7%, Mazarrón FC win 28.1%. The pick is Santomera win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.