ScoreProb
A Lyga Lithuania Round 36 2026

Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Banga Home · Elo 1,575
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FK Zalgiris Vilnius Away · Elo 1,592
Gargzdai stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Banga win
Banga winPick
38.8%
Draw
28.1%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%

How much we know

Banga history75 matches
FK Zalgiris Vilnius history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Banga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,575 against 1,592. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius score more

    1.28 goals a game over 75 matches for Banga, against 1.74 over 84 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius.

  • Banga concede fewer

    Banga concede 1.09 a game, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.30.

  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Banga matches, against 61% for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Banga
FK Zalgiris Vilnius@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1574.8
ELO
1591.9
75
ELO · Matches
84
1574.8
Current Team ELO
1591.9
1591.9
Current Opponent ELO
1574.8
-17.05
Current ELO Difference
17.05
0.48
Expected score
0.52
75
History Matches
84
0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
53.03
Overperformance
55.06
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
0.90
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.71
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
84
1.31
PPG
1.65
34.7%
Win rate
47.6%
26.7%
Draw rate
22.6%
38.7%
Loss rate
29.8%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
38
1.22
PPG
1.37
34.4%
Win rate
36.8%
18.8%
Draw rate
26.3%
46.9%
Loss rate
36.8%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
32
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.74
60.0%
Scoring rate
79.8%
37.3%
BTTS rate
54.8%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.45
56.3%
Scoring rate
68.4%
31.3%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.60
65.4%
Scoring rate
76.0%
38.5%
BTTS rate
48.0%
75
History Matches
84
1.28
Goals Mean
1.74
1.41
Goals Std
1.44
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
79.8%
38.7%
Scored 2+ rate
53.6%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.6%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.09
Goals against per game
1.30
68.0%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.45
71.9%
Conceding rate
71.1%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.16
65.4%
Conceding rate
60.0%
75
History Matches
84
1.09
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.07
Conceded Std
1.18
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.2%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.2%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
84
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.97
1.05
Stability score
4.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
84
24
Lead Matches
26
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.79
20
Trailing Matches
21
30.0%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.86
Rest days
76.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
49
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
23
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
26
Matches
25
1.65
PPG
1.64
46.2%
Win rate
48.0%
26.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
26.9%
Loss rate
32.0%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
26
Current Competition Matches
25
1.65
Current Competition PPG
1.64
0.62
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.44
8
Competition Season Count
10
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.65
Portability PPG Range
0.75
64.32
Portability Score
66.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-17.05
PPG-0.35
GF-0.46
GA-0.20
PPG0.01
PPG-0.15
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate19.8%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-3.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.04
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate6.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.01
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.18
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-2.00
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO-17.05
Current Opponent ELO17.05
Current ELO Difference-34.09
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-2.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Banga

L
Suduva Marijampole2–1Banga1 Nov · away
Pick: Suduva Marijampole 49% · hit
D
Banga0–0Šiauliai25 Oct · home
Pick: Banga 60% · missed
L
Panevėžys2–1Banga17 Oct · away
Pick: Panevėžys 41% · hit
D
Banga0–0Kauno Žalgiris30 Aug · home
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

D
Kauno Žalgiris0–0FK Zalgiris Vilnius26 Oct · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 64% · missed
W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius4–1Hegelmann Litauen18 Oct · home
Pick: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 53% · hit
L
Panevėžys2–0FK Zalgiris Vilnius30 Aug · away
Pick: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Banga and FK Zalgiris Vilnius meet in A Lyga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:15 UTC. The match is played at Gargzdai stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Banga win 38.8%, draw 28.1%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 33.1%. The pick is Banga win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.