ScoreProb
A Lyga Lithuania Round 36 2026

TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris

TransINVEST Vilnius Home · Elo 1,630
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kauno Žalgiris Away · Elo 1,655
FK TransINVEST stadium, Galine Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kauno Žalgiris win
TransINVEST Vilnius win
28.6%
Draw
23.0%
Kauno Žalgiris winPick
48.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%

How much we know

TransINVEST Vilnius history73 matches
Kauno Žalgiris history89 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kauno Žalgiris are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kauno Žalgiris are rated 25 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,655 against 1,630. On rating alone Kauno Žalgiris would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • TransINVEST Vilnius score more

    2.38 goals a game over 73 matches for TransINVEST Vilnius, against 1.80 over 89 for Kauno Žalgiris.

  • Kauno Žalgiris concede fewer

    TransINVEST Vilnius concede 1.01 a game, Kauno Žalgiris 0.80.

  • TransINVEST Vilnius games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of TransINVEST Vilnius matches, against 58% for Kauno Žalgiris. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1630.1
ELO
1655.3
73
ELO · Matches
89
1630.1
Current Team ELO
1655.3
1655.3
Current Opponent ELO
1630.1
-25.18
Current ELO Difference
25.18
0.46
Expected score
0.54
73
History Matches
89
0.08
Residual Mean
0.09
56.42
Overperformance
57.30
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
89
2.05
PPG
1.94
64.4%
Win rate
56.2%
12.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
23.3%
Loss rate
18.0%
86.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
69.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.4%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
42
2.03
PPG
1.98
62.9%
Win rate
54.8%
14.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
22.9%
Loss rate
11.9%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
35
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.38
Goals for per game
1.80
91.8%
Scoring rate
77.5%
52.1%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.67
88.6%
Scoring rate
73.8%
37.1%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.96
85.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
59.3%
BTTS rate
45.8%
73
History Matches
89
2.38
Goals Mean
1.80
1.82
Goals Std
1.45
91.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
61.6%
Scored 2+ rate
52.8%
38.4%
Scored 3+ rate
31.5%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.01
Goals against per game
0.80
57.5%
Conceding rate
56.2%
0.71
Goals against per game
0.83
45.7%
Conceding rate
57.1%
1.19
Goals against per game
0.71
66.7%
Conceding rate
54.2%
73
History Matches
89
1.01
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.14
Conceded Std
0.89
27.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.1%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.2%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
0.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.5%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
8.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
54.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
42.5%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
8.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
54.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
42.5%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
89
0.80
Result entropy
0.89
2.42
Goal Difference Std
1.86
19.82
Stability score
10.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
88
37
Lead Matches
42
89.2%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.90
14
Trailing Matches
10
21.4%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
1.01
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.27
1.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.85
Rest days
83.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
12
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
43
Normal Rest History Matches
54
2.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.02
28
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
27
Matches
24
1.67
PPG
1.83
48.1%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
29.6%
Loss rate
16.7%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
27
Current Competition Matches
24
1.67
Current Competition PPG
1.83
0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
6
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.38
Portability PPG Range
2.33
50.69
Portability Score
41.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
89
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-25.18
PPG0.11
GF0.59
GA0.22
PPG-0.17
PPG0.05
PPG0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.59
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate8.8%
Scored 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.56
Stability score9.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.69
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate3.5%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.81
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.95
Portability Score8.99
Rest days-8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.83
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-25.18
Current Opponent ELO25.18
Current ELO Difference-50.36
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TransINVEST Vilnius

L
Panevėžys1–0TransINVEST Vilnius31 Oct · away
Pick: TransINVEST Vilnius 40% · missed
W
TransINVEST Vilnius2–0Hegelmann Litauen24 Oct · home
Pick: TransINVEST Vilnius 51% · hit
D
Džiugas Telšiai3–3TransINVEST Vilnius17 Oct · away
Pick: Džiugas Telšiai 39% · missed
W
TransINVEST Vilnius3–0Šiauliai24 Aug · home
Pick: TransINVEST Vilnius 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kauno Žalgiris

W
Hegelmann Litauen1–4Kauno Žalgiris31 Oct · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 53% · hit
D
Kauno Žalgiris0–0FK Zalgiris Vilnius26 Oct · home
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 64% · missed
L
Kauno Žalgiris1–4Brann22 Oct · home
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 45% · missed
W
Suduva Marijampole0–1Kauno Žalgiris19 Oct · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 35% · hit
L
Brighton4–0Kauno Žalgiris15 Oct · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 49% · missed

About this match

TransINVEST Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris meet in A Lyga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:15 UTC. The match is played at FK TransINVEST stadium, Galine. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: TransINVEST Vilnius win 28.6%, draw 23.0%, Kauno Žalgiris win 48.4%. The pick is Kauno Žalgiris win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.