ScoreProb
A Lyga Lithuania Round 36 2026

Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai

Suduva Marijampole Home · Elo 1,640
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Džiugas Telšiai Away · Elo 1,546
Marijampole Football Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Suduva Marijampole win
Suduva Marijampole winPick
50.4%
Draw
25.1%
Džiugas Telšiai win
24.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%

How much we know

Suduva Marijampole history75 matches
Džiugas Telšiai history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Suduva Marijampole are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Suduva Marijampole are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,640 against 1,546. On rating alone Suduva Marijampole would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Suduva Marijampole score more

    1.51 goals a game over 75 matches for Suduva Marijampole, against 1.17 over 82 for Džiugas Telšiai.

  • Suduva Marijampole concede fewer

    Suduva Marijampole concede 0.96 a game, Džiugas Telšiai 1.20.

  • Suduva Marijampole games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Suduva Marijampole matches, against 38% for Džiugas Telšiai. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Suduva Marijampole
Džiugas Telšiai@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1640.3
ELO
1546.0
75
ELO · Matches
82
1640.3
Current Team ELO
1546.0
1546.0
Current Opponent ELO
1640.3
94.35
Current ELO Difference
-94.35
0.63
Expected score
0.37
75
History Matches
82
0.10
Residual Mean
0.02
57.97
Overperformance
51.74
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
0.90
2.10
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.30
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
82
1.75
PPG
1.39
46.7%
Win rate
36.6%
34.7%
Draw rate
29.3%
18.7%
Loss rate
34.1%
69.3%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
44
1.88
PPG
1.61
51.2%
Win rate
45.5%
34.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
14.6%
Loss rate
29.5%
63.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
43.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.5%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
41
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.17
73.3%
Scoring rate
70.7%
48.0%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.34
70.7%
Scoring rate
81.8%
46.3%
BTTS rate
52.3%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.37
76.0%
Scoring rate
70.4%
48.0%
BTTS rate
40.7%
75
History Matches
82
1.51
Goals Mean
1.17
1.33
Goals Std
1.08
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.7%
45.3%
Scored 2+ rate
29.3%
18.7%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
1.20
58.7%
Conceding rate
67.1%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.30
56.1%
Conceding rate
68.2%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.15
52.0%
Conceding rate
59.3%
75
History Matches
82
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Conceded Std
1.12
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.6%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.0%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
82
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.46
5.68
Stability score
0.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
76
23
Lead Matches
18
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.93
13
Trailing Matches
24
38.5%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.85
Rest days
76.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
56
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
27
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
27
1.92
PPG
1.59
52.0%
Win rate
44.4%
36.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
12.0%
Loss rate
29.6%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
25
Current Competition Matches
27
1.92
Current Competition PPG
1.59
0.96
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.22
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.85
Portability PPG Range
1.83
62.47
Portability Score
47.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO94.35
PPG0.36
GF0.34
GA-0.24
PPG0.33
PPG0.26
PPG1.80
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate16.1%
Scored 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score5.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate1.0%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.74
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.98
Portability Score15.13
Rest days0.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO94.35
Current Opponent ELO-94.35
Current ELO Difference188.7
Expected score0.27
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Suduva Marijampole

W
Suduva Marijampole2–1Banga1 Nov · home
Pick: Suduva Marijampole 49% · hit
L
Suduva Marijampole0–1Kauno Žalgiris19 Oct · home
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 35% · hit
W
Šiauliai1–2Suduva Marijampole30 Aug · away
Pick: Suduva Marijampole 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Džiugas Telšiai

L
Šiauliai2–1Džiugas Telšiai31 Oct · away
Pick: Džiugas Telšiai 46% · missed
W
Džiugas Telšiai2–1Panevėžys25 Oct · home
Pick: Džiugas Telšiai 44% · hit
D
Džiugas Telšiai3–3TransINVEST Vilnius17 Oct · home
Pick: Džiugas Telšiai 39% · missed
D
Džiugas Telšiai2–2Hegelmann Litauen31 Aug · home
Pick: Džiugas Telšiai 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai meet in A Lyga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:15 UTC. The match is played at Marijampole Football Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Suduva Marijampole win 50.4%, draw 25.1%, Džiugas Telšiai win 24.5%. The pick is Suduva Marijampole win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.7%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.