ScoreProb
Primera División Femenina Spain Round 10 2026

Barcelona W vs Madrid CFF W

Barcelona W Home · Elo 1,816
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Madrid CFF W Away · Elo 1,463
Estadi Johan Cruyff, Barcelona Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barcelona W win
Barcelona W winPick
73.5%
Draw
15.4%
Madrid CFF W win
11.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.2%
Under 2.521.8%

How much we know

Barcelona W history63 matches
Madrid CFF W history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.5%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Barcelona W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Barcelona W are rated 353 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,816 against 1,463. On rating alone Barcelona W would be expected to take 88% of the points on offer.

  • Barcelona W score far more

    4.06 goals a game over 63 matches for Barcelona W, against 1.43 over 44 for Madrid CFF W.

  • Barcelona W concede fewer

    Barcelona W concede 0.51 a game, Madrid CFF W 2.11.

  • Barcelona W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Barcelona W matches, against 57% for Madrid CFF W. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barcelona W
Madrid CFF W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1816.3
ELO
1462.8
63
ELO · Matches
44
1816.3
Current Team ELO
1462.8
1462.8
Current Opponent ELO
1816.3
353.4
Current ELO Difference
-353.4
0.88
Expected score
0.12
63
History Matches
44
0.25
Residual Mean
-0.04
69.34
Overperformance
47.13
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.20
3.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.40
Goals against per game
2.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.80
PPG
1.00
3.90
Goals for per game
1.30
0.60
Goals against per game
2.10
90.0%
Win rate
30.0%
3.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
44
2.75
PPG
1.18
90.5%
Win rate
34.1%
3.2%
Draw rate
15.9%
6.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
96.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.1%
74.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.6%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
22
2.82
PPG
1.09
94.1%
Win rate
31.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
13.6%
5.9%
Loss rate
54.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
88.2%
Over 2.5 rate
77.3%
79.4%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.99
34
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
4.06
Goals for per game
1.43
96.8%
Scoring rate
68.2%
39.7%
BTTS rate
54.5%
4.53
Goals for per game
1.64
100.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
44.1%
BTTS rate
72.7%
63
History Matches
44
4.06
Goals Mean
1.43
2.29
Goals Std
1.44
96.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.2%
90.5%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
69.8%
Scored 3+ rate
22.7%
4.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.51
Goals against per game
2.11
42.9%
Conceding rate
81.8%
0.56
Goals against per game
2.68
44.1%
Conceding rate
90.9%
63
History Matches
44
0.51
Conceded Mean
2.11
0.66
Conceded Std
2.19
6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
1.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
0.56
Venue Conceded Mean
2.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
3.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
55.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
3.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
55.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
44
0.34
Result entropy
0.92
2.42
Goal Difference Std
2.67
65.86
Stability score
8.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
44
49
Lead Matches
11
98.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.99
Lead Points Retention
0.85
2
Trailing Matches
20
0.0%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
1.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
2.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
161.0
Rest days
161.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
40
Normal Rest History Matches
16
2.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
16
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.16
73.56
Portability Score
86.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO353.4
PPG1.56
GF2.63
GA-1.61
PPG1.73
PPG1.80
PPG1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate39.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate46.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches19
Goals Mean2.63
Goals Std0.86
Scored 1+ rate28.6%
Scored 2+ rate54.1%
Scored 3+ rate47.1%
Venue Goals Mean2.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-1.61
Conceded Std-1.52
Clean-sheet rate39.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.48
Conceded 3+ rate-0.26
Venue Conceded Mean-2.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.71
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.57
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score57.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.69
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches38
Lead Win Rate16.1%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean1.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean1.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.92
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-12.51
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.16
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match1.81
Current Team ELO353.4
Current Opponent ELO-353.4
Current ELO Difference706.9
Expected score0.77
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.30
Overperformance22.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barcelona W

W
FC Levante Badalona0–4Barcelona W1 Nov · away
Pick: Barcelona W 60% · hit
W
Køge W0–8Barcelona W29 Oct · away
Pick: Barcelona W 52% · hit
W
Barcelona W3–0Granada24 Oct · home
Pick: Barcelona W 63% · hit
L
Real Sociedad W2–1Barcelona W18 Oct · away
Pick: Barcelona W 52% · missed
W
Barcelona W5–0Granad. Tenerife W30 Aug · home
Pick: Barcelona W 61% · hit

Madrid CFF W

W
Madrid CFF W2–1Deportivo de La Coruña W31 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo de La Coruña W 41% · missed
D
Eibar W2–2Madrid CFF W25 Oct · away
Pick: Eibar W 44% · missed
L
Atletico Madrid W4–0Madrid CFF W18 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Madrid W 69% · hit
W
Madrid CFF W3–1Granada29 Aug · home
Pick: Granada 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Barcelona W and Madrid CFF W meet in Primera División Femenina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadi Johan Cruyff, Barcelona. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Barcelona W win 73.5%, draw 15.4%, Madrid CFF W win 11.1%. The pick is Barcelona W win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.2%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.