ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Barnsley vs Aldershot Town

Barnsley Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aldershot Town Away · Elo 1,512
Oakwell, Barnsley Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aldershot Town win
Barnsley win
32.6%
Draw
22.7%
Aldershot Town winPick
44.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.8%
No39.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

How much we know

Barnsley history86 matches
Aldershot Town history95 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Aldershot Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,512. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.49 goals a game over 86 matches for Barnsley, against 1.62 over 95 for Aldershot Town.

  • Defences are close

    Barnsley concede 1.71 a game, Aldershot Town 1.66.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Barnsley matches, against 67% for Aldershot Town. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barnsley
Aldershot Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.9
ELO
1511.6
86
ELO · Matches
95
1499.9
Current Team ELO
1511.6
1511.6
Current Opponent ELO
1499.9
-11.75
Current ELO Difference
11.75
0.48
Expected score
0.52
86
History Matches
95
0.00
Residual Mean
0.00
49.95
Overperformance
50.14
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
95
1.24
PPG
1.39
32.6%
Win rate
41.1%
26.7%
Draw rate
15.8%
40.7%
Loss rate
43.2%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.4%
65.1%
Over 2.5 rate
67.4%
39.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
50
1.40
PPG
1.46
38.1%
Win rate
44.0%
26.2%
Draw rate
14.0%
35.7%
Loss rate
42.0%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
42
History Matches
50
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.49
Goals for per game
1.62
75.6%
Scoring rate
78.9%
66.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.62
73.8%
Scoring rate
76.0%
69.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
86
History Matches
95
1.49
Goals Mean
1.62
1.25
Goals Std
1.23
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
43.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
22.1%
Scored 3+ rate
22.1%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.71
Goals against per game
1.66
87.2%
Conceding rate
77.9%
1.69
Goals against per game
1.58
92.9%
Conceding rate
72.0%
86
History Matches
95
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.23
Conceded Std
1.39
52.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.5%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.2%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
12.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
12.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
7.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
12.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
95
0.99
Result entropy
0.93
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.06
1.34
Stability score
7.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
95
25
Lead Matches
28
64.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.81
30
Trailing Matches
39
33.3%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.22
69
Normal Rest History Matches
76
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
11
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
11
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.25
Portability PPG Range
2.00
56.44
Portability Score
41.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
95
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-11.75
PPG-0.15
GF-0.13
GA0.05
PPG-0.06
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score-5.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.42
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate10.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score14.90
Rest days-3.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO-11.75
Current Opponent ELO11.75
Current ELO Difference-23.49
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barnsley

D
Barnsley1–1Oxford United31 Oct · home
Pick: Barnsley 45% · missed
L
Reading2–1Barnsley24 Oct · away
Pick: Reading 46% · hit
L
Luton2–1Barnsley20 Oct · away
Pick: Luton 53% · hit
L
Barnsley1–2Cambridge United17 Oct · home
Pick: Cambridge United 46% · hit
L
Fleetwood Town4–1Barnsley6 Oct · away
Pick: Fleetwood Town 42% · hit

Aldershot Town

L
Aldershot Town0–5Ipswich Town U213 Nov · home
Pick: Aldershot Town 68% · missed
W
Aldershot Town1–0Gateshead31 Oct · home
Pick: Aldershot Town 52% · hit
L
Sutton Utd2–0Aldershot Town28 Oct · away
Pick: Sutton Utd 51% · hit
L
Aldershot Town0–1Wealdstone24 Oct · home
Pick: Aldershot Town 52% · missed
D
Aldershot Town2–2Tadley Calleva17 Oct · home
Pick: Aldershot Town 65% · missed

About this match

Barnsley and Aldershot Town meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Oakwell, Barnsley. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Barnsley win 32.6%, draw 22.7%, Aldershot Town win 44.7%. The pick is Aldershot Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.7%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.