ScoreProb
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 15 2026

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. vs TSV Steinbach

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. Home · Elo 1,548
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
TSV Steinbach Away · Elo 1,588
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. winPick
43.3%
Draw
24.3%
TSV Steinbach win
32.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.7%
No36.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.5%
Under 2.534.5%

How much we know

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. history72 matches
TSV Steinbach history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • TSV Steinbach are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,548. On rating alone TSV Steinbach would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.04 goals a game over 72 matches for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn., against 2.00 over 65 for TSV Steinbach.

  • Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. concede fewer

    Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. concede 1.47 a game, TSV Steinbach 1.66.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. matches, against 69% for TSV Steinbach. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
TSV Steinbach
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.7
ELO
1588.3
72
ELO · Matches
65
1547.7
Current Team ELO
1588.3
1588.3
Current Opponent ELO
1547.7
-40.63
Current ELO Difference
40.63
0.44
Expected score
0.56
72
History Matches
65
0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
52.22
Overperformance
54.55
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
2.15
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.40
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.82
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
65
1.46
PPG
1.66
40.3%
Win rate
47.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
34.7%
Loss rate
29.2%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.1%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
3.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
35
1.44
PPG
1.74
41.2%
Win rate
51.4%
20.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
38.2%
Loss rate
28.6%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
34
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.04
Goals for per game
2.00
79.2%
Scoring rate
84.6%
63.9%
BTTS rate
69.2%
1.56
Goals for per game
2.00
76.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
61.8%
BTTS rate
68.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
72
History Matches
65
2.04
Goals Mean
2.00
2.98
Goals Std
1.51
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
53.8%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
35.4%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.66
80.6%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.60
79.4%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
72
History Matches
65
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.09
Conceded Std
1.47
45.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.5%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
65
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
3.24
Goal Difference Std
2.21
1.68
Stability score
4.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
65
16
Lead Matches
28
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.83
22
Trailing Matches
14
31.8%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
44
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
100.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.63
Portability PPG Range
1.00
68.68
Portability Score
60.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-40.63
PPG-0.20
GF0.04
GA-0.19
PPG0.33
PPG-0.30
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate5.4%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std1.47
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.15
History Matches7
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std1.03
Stability score-2.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate6.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.37
Portability Score8.66
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.83
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO-40.63
Current Opponent ELO40.63
Current ELO Difference-81.27
Expected score-0.12
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

W
Hessen Kassel0–1Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.31 Oct · away
Pick: Hessen Kassel 39% · missed
W
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.3–1FSV Mainz 05 II24 Oct · home
Pick: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 47% · hit
L
SGV Freiberg3–0Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.17 Oct · away
Pick: SGV Freiberg 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

TSV Steinbach

D
TSV Steinbach2–2FSV Frankfurt30 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 41% · missed
L
TSV Steinbach0–2VfR Mannheim24 Oct · home
Pick: TSV Steinbach 44% · missed
L
Stuttgarter Kickers3–1TSV Steinbach17 Oct · away
Pick: Stuttgarter Kickers 50% · hit
W
TSV Steinbach2–1Hessen Kassel29 Aug · home
Pick: TSV Steinbach 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. and TSV Steinbach meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win 43.3%, draw 24.3%, TSV Steinbach win 32.4%. The pick is Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.5%. Both teams to score: 63.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.