ScoreProb
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 15 2026

FSV Frankfurt vs SGV Freiberg

FSV Frankfurt Home · Elo 1,579
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
SGV Freiberg Away · Elo 1,596
PSD Bank Arena, Frankfurt Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SGV Freiberg win
FSV Frankfurt win
32.8%
Draw
22.9%
SGV Freiberg winPick
44.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.0%
No37.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.2%
Under 2.533.8%

How much we know

FSV Frankfurt history70 matches
SGV Freiberg history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why SGV Freiberg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,579 against 1,596. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.10 goals a game over 70 matches for FSV Frankfurt, against 2.08 over 63 for SGV Freiberg.

  • SGV Freiberg concede fewer

    FSV Frankfurt concede 1.66 a game, SGV Freiberg 1.22.

  • FSV Frankfurt games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of FSV Frankfurt matches, against 62% for SGV Freiberg. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FSV Frankfurt
SGV Freiberg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1578.6
ELO
1596.4
70
ELO · Matches
63
1578.6
Current Team ELO
1596.4
1596.4
Current Opponent ELO
1578.6
-17.81
Current ELO Difference
17.81
0.47
Expected score
0.53
70
History Matches
63
0.06
Residual Mean
0.07
54.76
Overperformance
55.57
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
2.80
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.09
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.95
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
63
1.57
PPG
1.87
45.7%
Win rate
55.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.6%
34.3%
Loss rate
23.8%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
74.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
39.7%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
32
1.43
PPG
1.69
40.5%
Win rate
46.9%
21.6%
Draw rate
28.1%
37.8%
Loss rate
25.0%
89.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
73.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
51.4%
Over 3.5 rate
53.1%
2.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
37
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.10
Goals for per game
2.08
90.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
65.7%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.31
86.5%
Scoring rate
81.3%
62.2%
BTTS rate
68.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
70
History Matches
63
2.10
Goals Mean
2.08
1.56
Goals Std
1.61
90.0%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
55.6%
31.4%
Scored 3+ rate
34.9%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.22
75.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.50
75.7%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
0.0%
70
History Matches
63
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.49
Conceded Std
1.34
45.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
27.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
63
0.95
Result entropy
0.90
2.33
Goal Difference Std
2.08
4.72
Stability score
9.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
60
26
Lead Matches
25
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
1.00
22
Trailing Matches
11
36.4%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.99
First Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
47
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.51
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.82
20
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.67
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.90
Portability PPG Range
1.88
59.68
Portability Score
44.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-17.81
PPG-0.30
GF0.02
GA0.43
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.26
PPG-0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate4.3%
Scored 2+ rate1.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate14.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches7
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score-4.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.98
Portability Score14.84
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Current Team ELO-17.81
Current Opponent ELO17.81
Current ELO Difference-35.63
Expected score-0.05
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FSV Frankfurt

D
TSV Steinbach2–2FSV Frankfurt30 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 41% · missed
L
FSV Frankfurt1–2Eintracht Frankfurt II24 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 51% · missed
L
Eintracht Trier3–2FSV Frankfurt18 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 42% · missed
D
Kaiserslautern II2–2FSV Frankfurt14 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SGV Freiberg

D
SGV Freiberg0–0FC Astoria Walldorf31 Oct · home
Pick: SGV Freiberg 60% · missed
D
Kickers Offenbach1–1SGV Freiberg23 Oct · away
Pick: SGV Freiberg 41% · missed
W
SGV Freiberg3–0Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.17 Oct · home
Pick: SGV Freiberg 61% · hit
W
SGV Freiberg2–1Eintracht Frankfurt II29 Aug · home
Pick: SGV Freiberg 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FSV Frankfurt and SGV Freiberg meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at PSD Bank Arena, Frankfurt. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FSV Frankfurt win 32.8%, draw 22.9%, SGV Freiberg win 44.4%. The pick is SGV Freiberg win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.2%. Both teams to score: 63.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.