ScoreProb
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 15 2026

Eintracht Trier vs FSV Mainz 05 II

Eintracht Trier Home · Elo 1,569
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FSV Mainz 05 II Away · Elo 1,570
Moselstadion, Trier Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Eintracht Trier win
Eintracht Trier winPick
50.5%
Draw
22.5%
FSV Mainz 05 II win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.9%
No40.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%

How much we know

Eintracht Trier history68 matches
FSV Mainz 05 II history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Eintracht Trier are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,569 against 1,570. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.62 goals a game over 68 matches for Eintracht Trier, against 1.69 over 64 for FSV Mainz 05 II.

  • Defences are close

    Eintracht Trier concede 1.51 a game, FSV Mainz 05 II 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Eintracht Trier matches, against 66% for FSV Mainz 05 II. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eintracht Trier
FSV Mainz 05 II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1569.2
ELO
1569.8
68
ELO · Matches
64
1569.2
Current Team ELO
1569.8
1569.8
Current Opponent ELO
1569.2
-0.63
Current ELO Difference
0.63
0.50
Expected score
0.50
68
History Matches
64
0.05
Residual Mean
0.06
54.23
Overperformance
54.60
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
64
1.50
PPG
1.55
42.6%
Win rate
43.8%
22.1%
Draw rate
23.4%
35.3%
Loss rate
32.8%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
30
1.63
PPG
1.33
48.6%
Win rate
36.7%
17.1%
Draw rate
23.3%
34.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
91.4%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
45.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
35
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.69
75.0%
Scoring rate
81.3%
52.9%
BTTS rate
64.1%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.63
77.1%
Scoring rate
90.0%
54.3%
BTTS rate
73.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
64
1.62
Goals Mean
1.69
1.30
Goals Std
1.34
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
54.4%
Scored 2+ rate
48.4%
23.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.38
72.1%
Conceding rate
76.6%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.50
71.4%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
64
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.41
Conceded Std
1.19
41.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
64
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
2.16
Goal Difference Std
1.98
3.11
Stability score
2.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
62
23
Lead Matches
24
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.78
17
Trailing Matches
12
11.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
48
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
15
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.77
Portability PPG Range
1.30
40.41
Portability Score
52.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-0.63
PPG-0.05
GF-0.07
GA0.14
PPG0.50
PPG0.30
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate12.9%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate6.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Conceded 2+ rate6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.63
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score0.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.06
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate11.8%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate11.8%
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-11.84
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-0.63
Current Opponent ELO0.63
Current ELO Difference-1.26
Expected score0.00
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eintracht Trier

D
FC 08 Homburg0–0Eintracht Trier30 Oct · away
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 53% · missed
W
Eintracht Trier2–0Stuttgarter Kickers24 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Trier 42% · hit
W
Eintracht Trier3–2FSV Frankfurt18 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 42% · missed
W
Hessen Kassel0–1Eintracht Trier1 Sep · away
Pick: Hessen Kassel 41% · missed
W
Eintracht Trier2–0SV Sandhausen29 Aug · home
Pick: Eintracht Trier 49% · hit

FSV Mainz 05 II

W
FSV Mainz 05 II2–1SV Sandhausen30 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 II 41% · hit
L
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.3–1FSV Mainz 05 II24 Oct · away
Pick: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 47% · hit
D
FSV Mainz 05 II1–1SSV Ulm 184617 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 II 53% · missed
L
FSV Mainz 05 II1–3VfR Aalen30 Aug · home
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 II 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Eintracht Trier and FSV Mainz 05 II meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Moselstadion, Trier. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Eintracht Trier win 50.5%, draw 22.5%, FSV Mainz 05 II win 27.0%. The pick is Eintracht Trier win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.0%. Both teams to score: 59.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.