ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Barracas Central vs Racing Club

Barracas Central Home · Elo 1,499
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Racing Club Away · Elo 1,549
Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia, Barracas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Racing Club win
Barracas Central win
32.5%
Draw
32.0%
Racing Club winPick
35.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.2%
No53.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.1%
Under 2.559.9%

How much we know

Barracas Central history61 matches
Racing Club history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Racing Club are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Racing Club are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,549 against 1,499. On rating alone Racing Club would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Racing Club score more

    0.93 goals a game over 61 matches for Barracas Central, against 1.29 over 73 for Racing Club.

  • Racing Club concede fewer

    Barracas Central concede 1.05 a game, Racing Club 0.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    34% of Barracas Central matches, against 37% for Racing Club. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barracas Central
Racing Club
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.0
ELO
1549.3
61
ELO · Matches
73
1499.0
Current Team ELO
1549.3
1549.3
Current Opponent ELO
1499.0
-50.26
Current ELO Difference
50.26
0.43
Expected score
0.57
61
History Matches
73
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.51
Overperformance
53.51
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
73
1.31
PPG
1.53
31.1%
Win rate
42.5%
37.7%
Draw rate
26.0%
31.1%
Loss rate
31.5%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
34.4%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
9.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
32
1.36
PPG
1.41
36.4%
Win rate
37.5%
27.3%
Draw rate
28.1%
36.4%
Loss rate
34.4%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
12.1%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
33
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.93
Goals for per game
1.29
63.9%
Scoring rate
76.7%
47.5%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.25
75.8%
Scoring rate
78.1%
54.5%
BTTS rate
46.9%
0.86
Goals for per game
1.00
61.9%
Scoring rate
72.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
59.1%
61
History Matches
73
0.93
Goals Mean
1.29
0.87
Goals Std
1.04
63.9%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
24.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.6%
4.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
0.88
68.9%
Conceding rate
56.2%
1.15
Goals against per game
0.94
72.7%
Conceding rate
59.4%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
68.2%
61
History Matches
73
1.05
Conceded Mean
0.88
0.91
Conceded Std
0.99
27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.5%
8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.6%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
0.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
73
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.24
Goal Difference Std
1.45
0.38
Stability score
1.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
73
19
Lead Matches
28
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
14
43.8%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.14
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
22
1.38
PPG
1.23
38.1%
Win rate
27.3%
23.8%
Draw rate
40.9%
38.1%
Loss rate
31.8%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
21
Current Competition Matches
22
1.38
Current Competition PPG
1.23
-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.69
0.92
Portability PPG Range
2.00
54.08
Portability Score
42.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-50.26
PPG-0.22
GF-0.35
GA0.17
PPG0.15
PPG-0.04
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate12.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.62
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-1.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate29.5%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.15
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.05
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-1.08
Portability Score12.05
Rest days0.28
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO-50.26
Current Opponent ELO50.26
Current ELO Difference-100.5
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barracas Central

D
Belgrano Cordoba2–2Barracas Central1 Nov · away
Pick: Belgrano Cordoba 46% · missed
W
Barracas Central2–1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto26 Oct · home
Pick: Barracas Central 53% · hit
D
Sarmiento Junin1–1Barracas Central19 Oct · away
Pick: Sarmiento Junin 38% · missed
D
Tigre0–0Barracas Central1 Sep · away
Pick: Tigre 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Racing Club

W
Racing Club2–1Aldosivi31 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Club 64% · hit
L
River Plate1–0Racing Club25 Oct · away
Pick: River Plate 45% · hit
W
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1–2Racing Club5 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Club 49% · hit
L
Independ. Rivadavia3–1Racing Club31 Aug · away
Pick: Independ. Rivadavia 43% · hit
D
Racing Club1–1Boca Juniors24 Aug · home
Pick: Racing Club 42% · missed

About this match

Barracas Central and Racing Club meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia, Barracas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Barracas Central win 32.5%, draw 32.0%, Racing Club win 35.5%. The pick is Racing Club win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.1%. Both teams to score: 46.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.