ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Aldosivi vs River Plate

Aldosivi Home · Elo 1,418
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
River Plate Away · Elo 1,558
Estadio Jose Maria Minella, Mar del Plata Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: River Plate win
Aldosivi win
27.2%
Draw
28.0%
River Plate winPick
44.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.0%
No57.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.9%
Under 2.557.1%

How much we know

Aldosivi history55 matches
River Plate history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why River Plate are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • River Plate are rated 140 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,418. On rating alone River Plate would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • River Plate score more

    0.87 goals a game over 55 matches for Aldosivi, against 1.25 over 71 for River Plate.

  • River Plate concede fewer

    Aldosivi concede 1.36 a game, River Plate 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of Aldosivi matches, against 34% for River Plate. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aldosivi
River Plate
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1417.8
ELO
1558.0
55
ELO · Matches
71
1417.8
Current Team ELO
1558.0
1558.0
Current Opponent ELO
1417.8
-140.3
Current ELO Difference
140.3
0.31
Expected score
0.69
55
History Matches
71
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
45.30
Overperformance
52.70
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
71
0.87
PPG
1.61
18.2%
Win rate
42.3%
32.7%
Draw rate
33.8%
49.1%
Loss rate
23.9%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.7%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
33.8%
21.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.7%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
37
1.07
PPG
1.41
20.0%
Win rate
32.4%
46.7%
Draw rate
43.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
24.3%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
51.4%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
27.0%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
13.5%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
30
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.87
Goals for per game
1.25
50.9%
Scoring rate
67.6%
41.8%
BTTS rate
38.0%
0.93
Goals for per game
0.95
53.3%
Scoring rate
54.1%
46.7%
BTTS rate
29.7%
0.45
Goals for per game
1.09
45.5%
Scoring rate
59.1%
45.5%
BTTS rate
27.3%
55
History Matches
71
0.87
Goals Mean
1.25
1.06
Goals Std
1.23
50.9%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
23.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.2%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
0.80
76.4%
Conceding rate
53.5%
1.27
Goals against per game
0.73
66.7%
Conceding rate
48.6%
1.27
Goals against per game
0.77
77.3%
Conceding rate
63.6%
55
History Matches
71
1.36
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.07
Conceded Std
0.88
43.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.5%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.2%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
0.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.5%
49.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
51.4%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.9%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
54.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.5%
49.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
51.4%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.9%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
71
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.40
6.72
Stability score
2.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
71
12
Lead Matches
20
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.88
21
Trailing Matches
14
9.5%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.15
Rest days
76.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
6
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
29
Normal Rest History Matches
39
0.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
25
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
0.45
PPG
1.41
0.0%
Win rate
40.9%
45.5%
Draw rate
18.2%
54.5%
Loss rate
40.9%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
22.7%
Over 2.5 rate
22.7%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
22
Current Competition Matches
22
0.45
Current Competition PPG
1.41
-0.82
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.32
4
Competition Season Count
9
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.62
Portability PPG Range
1.00
66.15
Portability Score
55.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-140.3
PPG-0.73
GF-0.38
GA0.56
PPG-0.95
PPG-0.34
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate16.7%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.56
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score4.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.95
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.14
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score10.71
Rest days2.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Current Team ELO-140.3
Current Opponent ELO140.3
Current ELO Difference-280.5
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aldosivi

L
Racing Club2–1Aldosivi31 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Club 64% · hit
W
Aldosivi1–0Belgrano Cordoba25 Oct · home
Pick: Belgrano Cordoba 49% · missed
L
Huracan1–0Aldosivi4 Oct · away
Pick: Huracan 59% · hit
L
Argentinos JRS2–1Aldosivi30 Aug · away
Pick: Argentinos JRS 66% · hit
L
Aldosivi0–2Independ. Rivadavia26 Aug · home
Pick: Independ. Rivadavia 37% · hit

River Plate

L
Boca Juniors1–0River Plate1 Nov · away
Pick: Boca Juniors 40% · hit
W
River Plate1–0Racing Club25 Oct · home
Pick: River Plate 45% · hit
D
Sarmiento Junin1–1River Plate14 Oct · away
Pick: River Plate 40% · missed
W
Banfield2–3River Plate30 Aug · away
Pick: River Plate 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aldosivi and River Plate meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Jose Maria Minella, Mar del Plata. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Aldosivi win 27.2%, draw 28.0%, River Plate win 44.8%. The pick is River Plate win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.9%. Both teams to score: 43.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.