ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 17 2026

Basingstoke Town vs Hanworth Villa

Basingstoke Town Home · Elo 1,474
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hanworth Villa Away · Elo 1,640
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hanworth Villa win
Basingstoke Town win
22.3%
Draw
25.1%
Hanworth Villa winPick
52.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%

How much we know

Basingstoke Town history68 matches
Hanworth Villa history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Hanworth Villa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hanworth Villa are rated 166 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,640 against 1,474. On rating alone Hanworth Villa would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Hanworth Villa score more

    1.44 goals a game over 68 matches for Basingstoke Town, against 1.93 over 57 for Hanworth Villa.

  • Hanworth Villa concede fewer

    Basingstoke Town concede 1.60 a game, Hanworth Villa 0.77.

  • Basingstoke Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Basingstoke Town matches, against 49% for Hanworth Villa. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Basingstoke Town
Hanworth Villa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1473.9
ELO
1639.8
68
ELO · Matches
57
1473.9
Current Team ELO
1639.8
1639.8
Current Opponent ELO
1473.9
-165.9
Current ELO Difference
165.9
0.28
Expected score
0.72
68
History Matches
57
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.13
48.67
Overperformance
59.53
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.70
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
57
1.13
PPG
2.12
29.4%
Win rate
63.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.8%
45.6%
Loss rate
14.0%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.2%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
25
1.24
PPG
1.88
32.4%
Win rate
52.0%
26.5%
Draw rate
32.0%
41.2%
Loss rate
16.0%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
56.0%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
34
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.93
77.9%
Scoring rate
78.9%
67.6%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.44
79.4%
Scoring rate
72.0%
67.6%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
68
History Matches
57
1.44
Goals Mean
1.93
1.26
Goals Std
1.63
77.9%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
35.3%
Scored 2+ rate
59.6%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
29.8%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
0.77
86.8%
Conceding rate
61.4%
1.59
Goals against per game
0.68
85.3%
Conceding rate
56.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
0.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
57
1.60
Conceded Mean
0.77
1.16
Conceded Std
0.73
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.0%
20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.8%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
0.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
22.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
22.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
57
0.97
Result entropy
0.82
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.71
3.09
Stability score
17.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
57
16
Lead Matches
27
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.93
22
Trailing Matches
12
18.2%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.17
7
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
2.25
25.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.00
60.47
Portability Score
56.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-165.9
PPG-0.99
GF-0.49
GA0.83
PPG-1.25
PPG-0.64
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.83
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate30.1%
Conceded 3+ rate18.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.71
History Matches11
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-14.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.76
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.26
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.32
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score3.98
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.10
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.99
Current Team ELO-165.9
Current Opponent ELO165.9
Current ELO Difference-331.8
Expected score-0.44
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-10.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Basingstoke Town

L
Chertsey Town4–3Basingstoke Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Chertsey Town 65% · hit
L
Basingstoke Town0–2Uxbridge27 Oct · home
Pick: Uxbridge 42% · hit
W
Basingstoke Town2–0Plymouth Parkway24 Oct · home
Pick: Plymouth Parkway 44% · missed
L
Havant & Wville4–1Basingstoke Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Basingstoke Town 39% · missed
W
Basingstoke Town2–1Bracknell Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Basingstoke Town 53% · hit

Hanworth Villa

W
Hanworth Villa4–2Plymouth Parkway31 Oct · home
Pick: Hanworth Villa 44% · hit
W
Chichester City1–2Hanworth Villa27 Oct · away
Pick: Hanworth Villa 42% · hit
L
Enfield Town5–1Hanworth Villa24 Oct · away
Pick: Enfield Town 44% · hit
D
Hanworth Villa1–1Chippenham Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Hanworth Villa 67% · missed
D
Havant & Wville2–2Hanworth Villa17 Oct · away
Pick: Hanworth Villa 63% · missed

About this match

Basingstoke Town and Hanworth Villa meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Basingstoke Town win 22.3%, draw 25.1%, Hanworth Villa win 52.6%. The pick is Hanworth Villa win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.