ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 17 2026

Malvern Town vs Havant & Wville

Malvern Town Home · Elo 1,558
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Havant & Wville Away · Elo 1,485
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Malvern Town win
Malvern Town winPick
41.6%
Draw
21.4%
Havant & Wville win
37.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.0%
No34.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%

How much we know

Malvern Town history52 matches
Havant & Wville history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Malvern Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Malvern Town are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,485. On rating alone Malvern Town would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Malvern Town score more

    2.19 goals a game over 52 matches for Malvern Town, against 1.72 over 71 for Havant & Wville.

  • Defences are close

    Malvern Town concede 1.50 a game, Havant & Wville 1.55.

  • Malvern Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Malvern Town matches, against 65% for Havant & Wville. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Malvern Town
Havant & Wville
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1557.9
ELO
1485.4
52
ELO · Matches
71
1557.9
Current Team ELO
1485.4
1485.4
Current Opponent ELO
1557.9
72.50
Current ELO Difference
-72.50
0.60
Expected score
0.40
52
History Matches
71
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
53.29
Overperformance
49.27
-0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
2.40
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
2.30
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
71
1.85
PPG
1.41
53.8%
Win rate
40.8%
23.1%
Draw rate
18.3%
23.1%
Loss rate
40.8%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.7%
73.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.8%
53.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.7%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
35
2.21
PPG
1.17
70.8%
Win rate
31.4%
8.3%
Draw rate
22.9%
20.8%
Loss rate
45.7%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
24
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.19
Goals for per game
1.72
90.4%
Scoring rate
76.1%
67.3%
BTTS rate
54.9%
2.83
Goals for per game
1.40
95.8%
Scoring rate
74.3%
75.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
52
History Matches
71
2.19
Goals Mean
1.72
1.51
Goals Std
1.41
90.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
61.5%
Scored 2+ rate
50.7%
36.5%
Scored 3+ rate
29.6%
2.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.55
73.1%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.54
Goals against per game
1.66
79.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
52
History Matches
71
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.39
Conceded Std
1.24
44.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.9%
17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.8%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
9.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
9.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
71
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
2.11
Goal Difference Std
1.97
8.06
Stability score
5.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
71
12
Lead Matches
20
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.83
7
Trailing Matches
20
42.9%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
36
Normal Rest History Matches
52
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
13
Long Rest History Matches
12
2.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
0.75
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.87
Portability PPG Std
0.41
2.10
Portability PPG Range
1.07
36.58
Portability Score
54.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO72.50
PPG0.44
GF0.47
GA-0.05
PPG-0.25
PPG1.04
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-19
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-19
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score2.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate22.9%
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.46
Portability PPG Range1.02
Portability Score-18.35
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.99
Current Team ELO72.50
Current Opponent ELO-72.50
Current ELO Difference145.0
Expected score0.21
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Malvern Town

L
Sholing4–2Malvern Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Sholing 58% · hit
L
Uxbridge3–0Malvern Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Uxbridge 62% · hit
W
Malvern Town2–0Frome Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Frome Town 54% · missed
W
Malvern Town3–2Yate Town13 Oct · home
Pick: Yate Town 46% · missed
L
Malvern Town1–2Chippenham Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Chippenham Town 41% · hit

Havant & Wville

W
Havant & Wville1–0Taunton Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Taunton Town 47% · missed
L
Hanwell Town6–1Havant & Wville27 Oct · away
Pick: Hanwell Town 52% · hit
L
Bath City1–0Havant & Wville20 Oct · away
Pick: Bath City 55% · hit
D
Havant & Wville2–2Hanworth Villa17 Oct · home
Pick: Hanworth Villa 63% · missed
W
Havant & Wville4–1Basingstoke Town13 Oct · home
Pick: Basingstoke Town 39% · missed

About this match

Malvern Town and Havant & Wville meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Malvern Town win 41.6%, draw 21.4%, Havant & Wville win 37.1%. The pick is Malvern Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.1%. Both teams to score: 66.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.