ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 17 2026

Chichester City vs Bath City

Chichester City Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bath City Away · Elo 1,431
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chichester City win
Chichester City winPick
41.7%
Draw
27.0%
Bath City win
31.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Chichester City history68 matches
Bath City history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chichester City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chichester City are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,431. On rating alone Chichester City would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Chichester City score more

    1.41 goals a game over 68 matches for Chichester City, against 1.07 over 81 for Bath City.

  • Chichester City concede fewer

    Chichester City concede 1.35 a game, Bath City 1.51.

  • Chichester City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Chichester City matches, against 49% for Bath City. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chichester City
Bath City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.2
ELO
1431.2
68
ELO · Matches
81
1505.2
Current Team ELO
1431.2
1431.2
Current Opponent ELO
1505.2
74.08
Current ELO Difference
-74.08
0.61
Expected score
0.39
68
History Matches
81
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
50.43
Overperformance
46.98
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
81
1.47
PPG
1.04
41.2%
Win rate
24.7%
23.5%
Draw rate
29.6%
35.3%
Loss rate
45.7%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.8%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
49.4%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.2%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
39
1.37
PPG
1.05
37.1%
Win rate
25.6%
25.7%
Draw rate
28.2%
37.1%
Loss rate
46.2%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
37.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
35
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.07
79.4%
Scoring rate
64.2%
55.9%
BTTS rate
49.4%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.21
82.9%
Scoring rate
71.8%
60.0%
BTTS rate
59.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
68
History Matches
81
1.41
Goals Mean
1.07
1.06
Goals Std
1.05
79.4%
Scored 1+ rate
64.2%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
7.4%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.51
70.6%
Conceding rate
75.3%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.56
74.3%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.25
Goals against per game
0.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
68
History Matches
81
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.16
Conceded Std
1.32
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
16.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.7%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.8%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.7%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.8%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
81
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.74
2.30
Stability score
3.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
79
16
Lead Matches
18
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.87
23
Trailing Matches
25
47.8%
Non-loss rate
36.0%
17.4%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
55
Normal Rest History Matches
68
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
8
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.68
Portability PPG Range
1.75
63.01
Portability Score
46.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO74.08
PPG0.43
GF0.34
GA-0.15
PPG-0.50
PPG0.32
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate15.2%
Scored 2+ rate10.5%
Scored 3+ rate7.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-0.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate11.8%
Trailing Win Rate13.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score16.07
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO74.08
Current Opponent ELO-74.08
Current ELO Difference148.2
Expected score0.21
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chichester City

W
Frome Town2–3Chichester City31 Oct · away
Pick: Frome Town 50% · missed
L
Chichester City1–2Hanworth Villa27 Oct · home
Pick: Hanworth Villa 42% · hit
W
Gosport Borough0–2Chichester City24 Oct · away
Pick: Chichester City 42% · hit
W
Chichester City3–1Berkhamsted20 Oct · home
Pick: Chichester City 51% · hit
L
Bracknell Town1–0Chichester City17 Oct · away
Pick: Chichester City 42% · missed

Bath City

W
Bath City1–0Poole Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Bath City 48% · hit
W
Bath City1–0Havant & Wville20 Oct · home
Pick: Bath City 55% · hit
W
Hanwell Town0–2Bath City17 Oct · away
Pick: Hanwell Town 39% · missed
W
Evesham United0–2Bath City13 Oct · away
Pick: Evesham United 39% · missed
L
Frome Town1–0Bath City31 Aug · away
Pick: Frome Town 55% · hit

About this match

Chichester City and Bath City meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chichester City win 41.7%, draw 27.0%, Bath City win 31.3%. The pick is Chichester City win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.