ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille

Bayer Leverkusen Home · Elo 1,661
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Marseille Away · Elo 1,590
BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bayer Leverkusen win
Bayer Leverkusen winPick
54.4%
Draw
18.7%
Marseille win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.3%
No38.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

How much we know

Bayer Leverkusen history84 matches
Marseille history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bayer Leverkusen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bayer Leverkusen are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,661 against 1,590. On rating alone Bayer Leverkusen would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.88 goals a game over 84 matches for Bayer Leverkusen, against 2.07 over 70 for Marseille.

  • Defences are close

    Bayer Leverkusen concede 1.26 a game, Marseille 1.37.

  • Marseille games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Bayer Leverkusen matches, against 70% for Marseille. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bayer Leverkusen
Marseille
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1660.7
ELO
1589.8
84
ELO · Matches
70
1660.7
Current Team ELO
1589.8
1589.8
Current Opponent ELO
1660.7
70.90
Current ELO Difference
-70.90
0.60
Expected score
0.40
84
History Matches
70
0.09
Residual Mean
0.07
57.11
Overperformance
55.30
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
2.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
2.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.90
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
70
1.75
PPG
1.73
50.0%
Win rate
52.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
32.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.3%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
36.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
33
1.74
PPG
1.21
48.7%
Win rate
36.4%
28.2%
Draw rate
12.1%
23.1%
Loss rate
51.5%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.76
39
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.88
Goals for per game
2.07
82.1%
Scoring rate
78.6%
52.4%
BTTS rate
55.7%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.61
84.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
51.3%
BTTS rate
45.5%
84
History Matches
70
1.88
Goals Mean
2.07
1.48
Goals Std
1.84
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
54.8%
Scored 2+ rate
52.9%
29.8%
Scored 3+ rate
37.1%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.37
65.5%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.61
59.0%
Conceding rate
78.8%
84
History Matches
70
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.32
Conceded Std
1.03
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
15.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
70
0.95
Result entropy
0.89
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.40
5.36
Stability score
10.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
70
35
Lead Matches
25
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.87
24
Trailing Matches
18
29.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.38
Rest days
76.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.92
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
54
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
16
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.57
Portability PPG Range
1.38
52.65
Portability Score
54.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO70.90
PPG0.02
GF-0.19
GA-0.11
PPG0.53
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate1.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches14
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-5.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate1.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate1.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-2.28
Rest days-0.68
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO70.90
Current Opponent ELO-70.90
Current ELO Difference141.8
Expected score0.20
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bayer Leverkusen

L
Bayer Leverkusen2–4VfB Stuttgart31 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Stuttgart 43% · hit
W
Bayer Leverkusen5–21. FC Nürnberg28 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 64% · hit
L
1899 Hoffenheim3–0Bayer Leverkusen25 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 53% · missed
W
OFI0–2Bayer Leverkusen22 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 51% · hit
W
Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg18 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 53% · hit

Marseille

W
Marseille2–0Toulouse1 Nov · home
Pick: Marseille 61% · hit
W
Marseille4–3Le Havre25 Oct · home
Pick: Marseille 66% · hit
L
Sturm Graz1–0Marseille22 Oct · away
Pick: Sturm Graz 54% · hit
W
Angers2–5Marseille18 Oct · away
Pick: Marseille 52% · hit
L
Marseille0–1Olympiakos Piraeus15 Oct · home
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% · hit

About this match

Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Bayer Leverkusen win 54.4%, draw 18.7%, Marseille win 26.9%. The pick is Bayer Leverkusen win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.7%. Both teams to score: 61.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.