ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 18 2026

Bayern Hof vs Cham

Bayern Hof Home · Elo 1,507
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cham Away · Elo 1,588
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cham win
Bayern Hof win
25.7%
Draw
23.8%
Cham winPick
50.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Bayern Hof history52 matches
Cham history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Cham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cham are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,507. On rating alone Cham would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.63 goals a game over 52 matches for Bayern Hof, against 1.81 over 52 for Cham.

  • Cham concede fewer

    Bayern Hof concede 1.52 a game, Cham 1.02.

  • Bayern Hof games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Bayern Hof matches, against 46% for Cham. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bayern Hof
Cham
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.1
ELO
1588.1
52
ELO · Matches
52
1507.1
Current Team ELO
1588.1
1588.1
Current Opponent ELO
1507.1
-81.02
Current ELO Difference
81.02
0.39
Expected score
0.61
52
History Matches
52
0.01
Residual Mean
0.09
50.96
Overperformance
56.42
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
52
1.48
PPG
1.90
40.4%
Win rate
55.8%
26.9%
Draw rate
23.1%
32.7%
Loss rate
21.2%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
24
1.57
PPG
1.71
42.9%
Win rate
50.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
20.8%
28.6%
Loss rate
29.2%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
28
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.81
78.8%
Scoring rate
80.8%
57.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.42
82.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
53.6%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.71
Goals for per game
2.14
85.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
28.6%
52
History Matches
52
1.63
Goals Mean
1.81
1.44
Goals Std
1.48
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.8%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
51.9%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.02
73.1%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.00
60.7%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.57
Goals against per game
0.43
85.7%
Conceding rate
42.9%
52
History Matches
52
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.34
Conceded Std
1.01
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.9%
21.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.8%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
0.90
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.70
1.24
Stability score
9.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
51
14
Lead Matches
19
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.86
14
Trailing Matches
8
42.9%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
21
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.57
PPG
2.57
42.9%
Win rate
85.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
14.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.57
Current Competition PPG
2.57
0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.71
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.87
Portability PPG Range
0.73
57.84
Portability Score
62.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-81.02
PPG-0.42
GF-0.17
GA0.50
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.14
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.50
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate19.2%
Conceded 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches0
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-8.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.57
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.14
Portability Score-4.55
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-81.02
Current Opponent ELO81.02
Current ELO Difference-162.0
Expected score-0.23
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bayern Hof

W
Bayern Hof4–2Eintracht Bamberg31 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 46% · missed
W
Neudrossenfeld2–3Bayern Hof23 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern Hof 39% · hit
W
Bayern Hof3–1Ingolstadt II17 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Hof 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cham

L
Kornburg3–0Cham30 Oct · away
Pick: Cham 42% · missed
W
Cham5–1ASV Neumarkt23 Oct · home
Pick: Cham 71% · hit
W
Ammerthal0–2Cham18 Oct · away
Pick: Cham 77% · hit
W
Würzburger FV2–3Cham29 Aug · away
Pick: Cham 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bayern Hof and Cham meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bayern Hof win 25.7%, draw 23.8%, Cham win 50.5%. The pick is Cham win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.