ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 18 2026

Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Großbardorf

Viktoria Aschaffenburg Home · Elo 1,422
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Großbardorf Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viktoria Aschaffenburg win
Viktoria Aschaffenburg winPick
58.8%
Draw
19.5%
Großbardorf win
21.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Viktoria Aschaffenburg history61 matches
Großbardorf history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Viktoria Aschaffenburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Großbardorf are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,475 against 1,422. On rating alone Großbardorf would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Viktoria Aschaffenburg score more

    1.05 goals a game over 61 matches for Viktoria Aschaffenburg, against 0.71 over 7 for Großbardorf.

  • Großbardorf concede fewer

    Viktoria Aschaffenburg concede 1.93 a game, Großbardorf 1.57.

  • Viktoria Aschaffenburg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Viktoria Aschaffenburg matches, against 29% for Großbardorf. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Großbardorf
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1422.4
ELO
1475.3
61
ELO · Matches
7
1422.4
Current Team ELO
1475.3
1475.3
Current Opponent ELO
1422.4
-52.84
Current ELO Difference
52.84
0.42
Expected score
0.58
61
History Matches
7
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.16
44.64
Overperformance
45.73
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
7
0.90
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.71
2.30
Goals against per game
1.57
20.0%
Win rate
28.6%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.71
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.88
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.57
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.87
2.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
7
0.85
PPG
1.00
19.7%
Win rate
28.6%
26.2%
Draw rate
14.3%
54.1%
Loss rate
57.1%
70.5%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
36.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
3
0.85
PPG
1.00
18.5%
Win rate
33.3%
29.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
51.9%
Loss rate
66.7%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
27
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.05
Goals for per game
0.71
60.7%
Scoring rate
42.9%
47.5%
BTTS rate
14.3%
0.93
Goals for per game
1.00
51.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
40.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.50
80.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
40.0%
BTTS rate
16.7%
61
History Matches
7
1.05
Goals Mean
0.71
1.09
Goals Std
0.88
60.7%
Scored 1+ rate
42.9%
27.9%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
14.8%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.93
Goals against per game
1.57
78.7%
Conceding rate
57.1%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
85.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.83
60.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
7
1.93
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.61
Conceded Std
1.76
50.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
34.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
48.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
48.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
7
0.91
Result entropy
0.87
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.81
8.68
Stability score
13.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
7
6
Lead Matches
2
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
1.00
24
Trailing Matches
2
12.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.29
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
37
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
19
Long Rest History Matches
3
0.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
1.40
PPG
0.67
40.0%
Win rate
16.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
40.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
2.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
5
Current Competition Matches
6
1.40
Current Competition PPG
0.67
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
6
Competition Season Count
2
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.38
Portability PPG Std
—
1.15
Portability PPG Range
—
56.85
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-52.84
PPG-0.15
GF0.33
GA0.36
PPG0.73
PPG-0.15
PPG0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches54
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches54
Goals Mean0.33
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate17.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate14.8%
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches54
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches54
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-4.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.74
Eligible Matches54
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches22
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches54
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.73
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches34
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO-52.84
Current Opponent ELO52.84
Current ELO Difference-105.7
Expected score-0.15
History Matches54
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance-1.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

L
Jahn Regensburg II5–0Viktoria Aschaffenburg31 Oct · away
Pick: Viktoria Aschaffenburg 39% · missed
D
Viktoria Aschaffenburg0–0Gebenbach23 Oct · home
Pick: Gebenbach 52% · missed
D
Stadeln1–1Viktoria Aschaffenburg17 Oct · away
Pick: Stadeln 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Großbardorf

W
Ammerthal1–3Großbardorf31 Oct · away
Pick: Ammerthal 53% · missed
W
Großbardorf4–3Jahn Regensburg II24 Oct · home
Pick: Jahn Regensburg II 41% · missed
W
Großbardorf3–1DJK Bamberg16 Oct · home
Pick: Großbardorf 59% · hit
L
Weiden1–0Großbardorf29 Aug · away
Pick: Weiden 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg and Großbardorf meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Viktoria Aschaffenburg win 58.8%, draw 19.5%, Großbardorf win 21.7%. The pick is Viktoria Aschaffenburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.