ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie D Czechia Group D - 15 2026

Bedrichov vs Žďár nad Sázavou

Bedrichov Home · Elo 1,472
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Žďár nad Sázavou Away · Elo 1,485
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Žďár nad Sázavou win
Bedrichov win
29.4%
Draw
23.1%
Žďár nad Sázavou winPick
47.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.2%
No40.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Bedrichov history4 matches
Žďár nad Sázavou history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Žďár nad Sázavou are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,472 against 1,485. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Žďár nad Sázavou score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 4 matches for Bedrichov, against 1.56 over 48 for Žďár nad Sázavou.

  • Žďár nad Sázavou concede fewer

    Bedrichov concede 2.25 a game, Žďár nad Sázavou 1.63.

  • Bedrichov games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Bedrichov matches, against 56% for Žďár nad Sázavou. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bedrichov
Žďár nad Sázavou
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.7
ELO
1485.2
4
ELO · Matches
48
1471.7
Current Team ELO
1485.2
1485.2
Current Opponent ELO
1471.7
-13.47
Current ELO Difference
13.47
0.48
Expected score
0.52
4
History Matches
48
-0.31
Residual Mean
-0.02
44.83
Overperformance
48.83
-0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
0.50
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
2.25
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
4
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.25
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.71
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
2.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.79
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
48
0.50
PPG
1.42
0.0%
Win rate
39.6%
50.0%
Draw rate
22.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
24
0.33
PPG
1.08
0.0%
Win rate
29.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
20.8%
66.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.72
3
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.56
75.0%
Scoring rate
77.1%
75.0%
BTTS rate
52.1%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.38
66.7%
Scoring rate
79.2%
66.7%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
4
History Matches
48
1.00
Goals Mean
1.56
0.71
Goals Std
1.46
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
0.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.25
Goals against per game
1.63
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
2.33
Goals against per game
2.04
66.7%
Conceding rate
79.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
4
History Matches
48
2.25
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.48
Conceded Std
1.78
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
2.33
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
48
0.63
Result entropy
0.98
1.30
Goal Difference Std
2.54
36.91
Stability score
2.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
48
0
Lead Matches
13
—
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.90
2
Trailing Matches
15
50.0%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.94
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
2
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.43
—
Portability PPG Range
1.05
—
Portability Score
53.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-13.47
PPG-0.92
GF-0.56
GA0.63
PPG-1.67
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.90
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate2.1%
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches-44
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.75
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.83
History Matches-44
Conceded Mean0.63
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate31.3%
Conceded 3+ rate25.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.31
History Matches-44
Result entropy-0.35
Goal Difference Std-1.24
Stability score34.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.24
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-13
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate36.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.32
Long Rest History Matches-20
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-13.47
Current Opponent ELO13.47
Current ELO Difference-26.94
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-44
Residual Mean-0.29
Overperformance-4.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bedrichov

L
FS Třebíč1–0Bedrichov31 Oct · away
Pick: FS Třebíč 55% · hit
L
Bedrichov2–5Sparta Brno24 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Brno 39% · hit
L
Bystrc Kníničky4–0Bedrichov17 Oct · away
Pick: Bystrc Kníničky 54% · hit
L
Velká Bíteš6–3Bedrichov4 Oct · away
Pick: Velká Bíteš 64% · hit
L
Sokol Tasovice4–1Bedrichov30 Aug · away
Pick: Sokol Tasovice 71% · hit

Žďár nad Sázavou

L
Žďár nad Sázavou1–2Velké Meziříčí1 Nov · home
Pick: Žďár nad Sázavou 51% · missed
W
Pelhřimov0–4Žďár nad Sázavou25 Oct · away
Pick: Žďár nad Sázavou 50% · hit
D
Žďár nad Sázavou2–2Ždírec nad Doubravou18 Oct · home
Pick: Žďár nad Sázavou 55% · missed
L
Žďár nad Sázavou0–1Sokol Tasovice4 Oct · home
Pick: Žďár nad Sázavou 47% · missed
D
Žďár nad Sázavou2–2Velká Bíteš30 Aug · home
Pick: Žďár nad Sázavou 49% · missed

About this match

Bedrichov and Žďár nad Sázavou meet in 4. liga - Divizie D on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bedrichov win 29.4%, draw 23.1%, Žďár nad Sázavou win 47.5%. The pick is Žďár nad Sázavou win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 59.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.