ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B Portugal Group B - 8 2026

Beira-Mar vs União Lamas

Beira-Mar Home · Elo 1,523
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
União Lamas Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Beira-Mar win
Beira-Mar winPick
40.6%
Draw
27.6%
União Lamas win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.0%
No52.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.2%
Under 2.557.8%

How much we know

Beira-Mar history41 matches
União Lamas history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Beira-Mar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Beira-Mar are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,453. On rating alone Beira-Mar would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Beira-Mar score more

    1.17 goals a game over 41 matches for Beira-Mar, against 1.05 over 44 for União Lamas.

  • Beira-Mar concede fewer

    Beira-Mar concede 1.02 a game, União Lamas 1.20.

  • União Lamas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    34% of Beira-Mar matches, against 48% for União Lamas. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Beira-Mar
União Lamas@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.3
ELO
1452.5
41
ELO · Matches
44
1523.3
Current Team ELO
1452.5
1452.5
Current Opponent ELO
1523.3
70.74
Current ELO Difference
-70.74
0.60
Expected score
0.40
41
History Matches
44
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.04
51.47
Overperformance
47.25
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
44
1.41
PPG
1.18
36.6%
Win rate
31.8%
31.7%
Draw rate
22.7%
31.7%
Loss rate
45.5%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
61.4%
34.1%
Over 2.5 rate
47.7%
14.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
19
1.42
PPG
0.68
36.8%
Win rate
21.1%
31.6%
Draw rate
5.3%
31.6%
Loss rate
73.7%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
21.1%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
10.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
19
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
1.05
75.6%
Scoring rate
56.8%
48.8%
BTTS rate
43.2%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.11
78.9%
Scoring rate
63.2%
42.1%
BTTS rate
52.6%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
41
History Matches
44
1.17
Goals Mean
1.05
1.03
Goals Std
1.19
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
56.8%
29.3%
Scored 2+ rate
31.8%
4.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.20
65.9%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.84
63.2%
Conceding rate
89.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
44
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.20
0.97
Conceded Std
1.08
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.8%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
44
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.66
0.21
Stability score
3.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
42
12
Lead Matches
10
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.73
4
Trailing Matches
12
25.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.21
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.00
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.01
Portability PPG Range
0.82
99.31
Portability Score
58.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO70.74
PPG0.23
GF0.13
GA-0.18
PPG0.00
PPG0.74
PPG1.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate26.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate18.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.59
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-3.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.81
Portability Score41.06
Rest days0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO70.74
Current Opponent ELO-70.74
Current ELO Difference141.5
Expected score0.20
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Beira-Mar

D
Estrela Calheta1–1Beira-Mar1 Nov · away
Pick: Estrela Calheta 42% · missed
D
Beira-Mar1–1Sousense25 Oct · home
Pick: Beira-Mar 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

União Lamas

L
União Lamas1–2Sanjoanense31 Oct · home
Pick: União Lamas 40% · missed
W
Estrela Calheta1–2União Lamas25 Oct · away
Pick: Estrela Calheta 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Beira-Mar and União Lamas meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Beira-Mar win 40.6%, draw 27.6%, União Lamas win 31.7%. The pick is Beira-Mar win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.2%. Both teams to score: 48.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.