ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B Portugal Group B - 8 2026

Sanjoanense vs Machico

Sanjoanense Home · Elo 1,440
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Machico Away · Elo 1,527
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sanjoanense win
Sanjoanense winPick
37.4%
Draw
29.0%
Machico win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.2%
No50.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%

How much we know

Sanjoanense history44 matches
Machico history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,668 matches.

Why Sanjoanense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Machico are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,527 against 1,440. On rating alone Machico would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Sanjoanense score more

    1.25 goals a game over 44 matches for Sanjoanense, against 1.05 over 42 for Machico.

  • Machico concede fewer

    Sanjoanense concede 1.61 a game, Machico 1.05.

  • Sanjoanense games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Sanjoanense matches, against 31% for Machico. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sanjoanense
Machico@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.9
ELO
1526.8
44
ELO · Matches
42
1439.9
Current Team ELO
1526.8
1526.8
Current Opponent ELO
1439.9
-86.89
Current ELO Difference
86.89
0.38
Expected score
0.62
44
History Matches
42
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
45.90
Overperformance
52.15
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
42
1.07
PPG
1.45
22.7%
Win rate
40.5%
38.6%
Draw rate
23.8%
38.6%
Loss rate
35.7%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
21
1.00
PPG
1.10
16.7%
Win rate
28.6%
50.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
47.6%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
24
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.05
72.7%
Scoring rate
69.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
40.5%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.10
75.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
70.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
44
History Matches
42
1.25
Goals Mean
1.05
1.05
Goals Std
0.84
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
40.9%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
6.8%
Scored 3+ rate
2.4%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.05
84.1%
Conceding rate
61.9%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.52
91.7%
Conceding rate
81.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
44
History Matches
42
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.07
Conceded Std
1.05
52.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.0%
20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.5%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
15.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
15.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
42
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.35
2.46
Stability score
2.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
41
13
Lead Matches
9
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.89
14
Trailing Matches
12
28.6%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.01
1.18
Portability PPG Range
0.02
45.90
Portability Score
97.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-86.89
PPG-0.38
GF0.20
GA0.57
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.10
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate3.7%
Scored 2+ rate7.6%
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score0.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate11.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.58
Portability PPG Range1.16
Portability Score-52.04
Rest days-0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-86.89
Current Opponent ELO86.89
Current ELO Difference-173.8
Expected score-0.25
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sanjoanense

W
União Lamas1–2Sanjoanense31 Oct · away
Pick: União Lamas 40% · missed
L
Camacha2–1Sanjoanense25 Oct · away
Pick: Camacha 48% · hit
W
Sanjoanense1–0Nacional17 Oct · home
Pick: Nacional 38% · missed
W
Sanjoanense3–0Pacos de Brandao30 Aug · home
Pick: Sanjoanense 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Machico

D
Machico0–0Camacha1 Nov · home
Pick: Machico 49% · missed
W
Guarda0–1Machico25 Oct · away
Pick: Machico 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sanjoanense and Machico meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sanjoanense win 37.4%, draw 29.0%, Machico win 33.6%. The pick is Sanjoanense win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.4%. Both teams to score: 49.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.