ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B Portugal Group B - 8 2026

Salgueiros vs Estrela Calheta

Salgueiros Home · Elo 1,502
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Estrela Calheta Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Salgueiros win
Salgueiros winPick
48.3%
Draw
29.5%
Estrela Calheta win
22.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes38.1%
No61.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.5%
Under 2.561.5%

How much we know

Salgueiros history40 matches
Estrela Calheta history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Salgueiros are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,502 against 1,502. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Salgueiros score far more

    1.08 goals a game over 40 matches for Salgueiros, against 0.00 over 1 for Estrela Calheta.

  • Estrela Calheta concede fewer

    Salgueiros concede 0.80 a game, Estrela Calheta 0.00.

  • Salgueiros games more often go over 2.5 goals

    20% of Salgueiros matches, against 0% for Estrela Calheta. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Salgueiros
Estrela Calheta@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.2
ELO
1502.3
40
ELO · Matches
1
1502.2
Current Team ELO
1502.3
1502.3
Current Opponent ELO
1502.2
-0.15
Current ELO Difference
0.15
0.50
Expected score
0.50
40
History Matches
1
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
50.42
Overperformance
50.11
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
1
0.60
PPG
1.00
0.40
Goals for per game
0.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.70
Goals for per game
0.00
1.10
Goals against per game
0.00
10.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
1
1.43
PPG
1.00
35.0%
Win rate
0.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
100.0%
27.5%
Loss rate
0.0%
57.5%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
1
1.62
PPG
1.00
42.9%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
100.0%
23.8%
Loss rate
0.0%
47.6%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
9.5%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
9.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
21
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
0.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
32.5%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.05
Goals for per game
0.00
57.1%
Scoring rate
0.0%
19.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
40
History Matches
1
1.08
Goals Mean
0.00
1.19
Goals Std
—
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
27.5%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.05
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
0.00
55.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
0.52
Goals against per game
0.00
42.9%
Conceding rate
0.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
40
History Matches
1
0.80
Conceded Mean
0.00
0.93
Conceded Std
—
17.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.52
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
1
0.99
Result entropy
0.00
1.50
Goal Difference Std
—
0.76
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
1
8
Lead Matches
0
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.83
Lead Points Retention
—
12
Trailing Matches
0
58.3%
Non-loss rate
—
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.30
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
85.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
17
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.38
Portability PPG Std
—
0.77
Portability PPG Range
—
56.52
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-0.15
PPG0.43
GF1.08
GA0.80
PPG0.00
PPG0.62
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate-0.55
Failed-to-score rate-0.60
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.43
Failed-to-score rate-0.57
History Matches39
Goals Mean1.08
Scored 1+ rate60.0%
Scored 2+ rate27.5%
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
History Matches39
Conceded Mean0.80
Clean-sheet rate-0.55
Conceded 2+ rate17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
History Matches39
Result entropy0.99
Stability score-99.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.86
Eligible Matches39
Lead Matches8
Trailing Matches12
Halftime Coverage Matches39
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-8.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches22
Long Rest History Matches17
Current Team ELO-0.15
Current Opponent ELO0.15
Current ELO Difference-0.31
Expected score0.00
History Matches39
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Salgueiros

L
Salgueiros0–2Ovarense25 Oct · home
Pick: Salgueiros 38% · missed
W
Salgueiros2–1Sousense30 Aug · home
Pick: Salgueiros 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Estrela Calheta

D
Estrela Calheta1–1Beira-Mar1 Nov · home
Pick: Estrela Calheta 42% · missed
L
Estrela Calheta1–2União Lamas25 Oct · home
Pick: Estrela Calheta 46% · missed
L
Castro Daire3–0Estrela Calheta4 Oct · away
Pick: Castro Daire 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Salgueiros and Estrela Calheta meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Salgueiros win 48.3%, draw 29.5%, Estrela Calheta win 22.3%. The pick is Salgueiros win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.5%. Both teams to score: 38.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.