ScoreProb
Serie B Italy Round 11 2026

Virtus Entella vs Modena

Virtus Entella Home · Elo 1,477
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Modena Away · Elo 1,509
Stadio Comunale, Chiavari Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Modena win
Virtus Entella win
32.1%
Draw
28.9%
Modena winPick
39.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.9%
Under 2.555.1%

How much we know

Virtus Entella history62 matches
Modena history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Modena are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Modena are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,509 against 1,477. On rating alone Modena would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Modena score more

    1.18 goals a game over 62 matches for Virtus Entella, against 1.39 over 64 for Modena.

  • Defences are close

    Virtus Entella concede 1.13 a game, Modena 1.05.

  • Modena games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Virtus Entella matches, against 53% for Modena. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Virtus Entella
Modena
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.9
ELO
1508.7
62
ELO · Matches
64
1476.9
Current Team ELO
1508.7
1508.7
Current Opponent ELO
1476.9
-31.77
Current ELO Difference
31.77
0.45
Expected score
0.55
62
History Matches
64
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.24
Overperformance
50.53
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
64
1.40
PPG
1.41
35.5%
Win rate
39.1%
33.9%
Draw rate
23.4%
30.6%
Loss rate
37.5%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.4%
38.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
21.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
32
1.93
PPG
1.25
53.3%
Win rate
34.4%
33.3%
Draw rate
21.9%
13.3%
Loss rate
43.8%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
30
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.39
74.2%
Scoring rate
73.4%
53.2%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.13
90.0%
Scoring rate
65.6%
63.3%
BTTS rate
46.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
64
1.18
Goals Mean
1.39
0.99
Goals Std
1.19
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.4%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
46.9%
9.7%
Scored 3+ rate
10.9%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.05
75.8%
Conceding rate
70.3%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.09
70.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
64
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.05
0.92
Conceded Std
0.87
25.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
64
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.58
0.17
Stability score
2.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
64
16
Lead Matches
26
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.1%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.76
18
Trailing Matches
18
44.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
77.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.14
Portability PPG Range
0.56
49.23
Portability Score
68.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-31.77
PPG0.00
GF-0.21
GA0.08
PPG-3.00
PPG0.68
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate0.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.71
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-1.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.81
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate1.9%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-19.15
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Current Team ELO-31.77
Current Opponent ELO31.77
Current ELO Difference-63.54
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Virtus Entella

L
Sampdoria2–0Virtus Entella31 Oct · away
Pick: Sampdoria 48% · hit
D
Virtus Entella1–1Avellino27 Oct · home
Pick: Virtus Entella 45% · missed
L
Virtus Entella0–1Mantova24 Oct · home
Pick: Mantova 38% · hit
W
Padova1–2Virtus Entella17 Oct · away
Pick: Padova 49% · missed
L
Virtus Entella1–2Cesena29 Aug · home
Pick: Virtus Entella 45% · missed

Modena

D
Modena1–1Mantova31 Oct · home
Pick: Modena 44% · missed
W
Vicenza Virtus1–2Modena27 Oct · away
Pick: Vicenza Virtus 50% · missed
W
Modena3–0Cesena24 Oct · home
Pick: Modena 56% · hit
L
Carrarese2–1Modena17 Oct · away
Pick: Modena 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Virtus Entella and Modena meet in Serie B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Comunale, Chiavari. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Virtus Entella win 32.1%, draw 28.9%, Modena win 39.0%. The pick is Modena win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.9%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.