ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Benfica vs Lech Poznan

Benfica Home · Elo 1,707
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lech Poznan Away · Elo 1,686
Estádio da Luz, Lisbon Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Benfica win
Benfica winPick
38.5%
Draw
29.1%
Lech Poznan win
32.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Benfica history91 matches
Lech Poznan history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Benfica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,707 against 1,686. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Benfica score more

    2.20 goals a game over 91 matches for Benfica, against 1.94 over 85 for Lech Poznan.

  • Benfica concede fewer

    Benfica concede 0.85 a game, Lech Poznan 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Benfica matches, against 68% for Lech Poznan. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Benfica
Lech Poznan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1707.3
ELO
1686.4
91
ELO · Matches
85
1707.3
Current Team ELO
1686.4
1686.4
Current Opponent ELO
1707.3
20.87
Current ELO Difference
-20.87
0.53
Expected score
0.47
91
History Matches
85
0.11
Residual Mean
0.12
59.30
Overperformance
59.49
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.40
4.20
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.50
3.30
Goals for per game
2.50
1.00
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
3.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
2.15
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
91
Matches
85
2.15
PPG
1.89
64.8%
Win rate
56.5%
20.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
23.5%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
60.4%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
35.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
38
2.15
PPG
1.95
63.8%
Win rate
57.9%
23.4%
Draw rate
21.1%
12.8%
Loss rate
21.1%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
46.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
47
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.20
Goals for per game
1.94
89.0%
Scoring rate
88.2%
47.3%
BTTS rate
64.7%
2.49
Goals for per game
1.66
93.6%
Scoring rate
86.8%
51.1%
BTTS rate
57.9%
3.25
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
91
History Matches
85
2.20
Goals Mean
1.94
1.51
Goals Std
1.46
89.0%
Scored 1+ rate
88.2%
65.9%
Scored 2+ rate
57.6%
35.2%
Scored 3+ rate
24.7%
2.49
Venue Goals Mean
1.66
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
1.20
54.9%
Conceding rate
71.8%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.03
57.4%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
91
History Matches
85
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.20
0.91
Conceded Std
1.08
24.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.1%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
11.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
6.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
11.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
6.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
91
History Matches
85
0.81
Result entropy
0.90
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.87
19.35
Stability score
10.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
91
Eligible Matches
85
52
Lead Matches
41
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
87.8%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.90
10
Trailing Matches
15
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
91
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
1.05
First Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.03
Rest days
83.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
12
2.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
71
Normal Rest History Matches
50
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
12
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
2
1.75
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
4
Current Competition Matches
2
1.75
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
13
Competition Season Count
13
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.24
Portability PPG Range
0.65
52.58
Portability Score
67.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
91
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO20.87
PPG0.26
GF0.26
GA-0.35
PPG-1.25
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate0.8%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate10.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score9.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate4.5%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate3.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.59
Portability Score-15.19
Rest days-3.05
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.32
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO20.87
Current Opponent ELO-20.87
Current ELO Difference41.73
Expected score0.06
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Benfica

W
Benfica1–0Alverca2 Nov · home
Pick: Benfica 73% · hit
W
Benfica4–1GIL Vicente29 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica 62% · hit
W
Santa Clara1–2Benfica26 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica 54% · hit
W
Omonia Nicosia1–4Benfica22 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica 45% · hit
W
Benfica4–1Celtic15 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica 38% · hit

Lech Poznan

L
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0Lech Poznan28 Oct · away
Pick: Lech Poznan 54% · missed
W
Legia Warszawa1–2Lech Poznan25 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa 40% · missed
D
Lech Poznan1–1Sunderland22 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznan 58% · missed
W
Lech Poznan6–1Korona Kielce18 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznan 63% · hit
L
Lech Poznan0–4Bayer Leverkusen15 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznan 45% · missed

About this match

Benfica and Lech Poznan meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Benfica win 38.5%, draw 29.1%, Lech Poznan win 32.5%. The pick is Benfica win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.