ScoreProb
First League Armenia Round 13 2026

Bentonit Ijevan vs Araks Ararat

Bentonit Ijevan Home · Elo 1,443
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Araks Ararat Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bentonit Ijevan win
Bentonit Ijevan winPick
47.8%
Draw
24.6%
Araks Ararat win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%

How much we know

Bentonit Ijevan history44 matches
Araks Ararat history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bentonit Ijevan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Araks Ararat are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,443. On rating alone Araks Ararat would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 44 matches for Bentonit Ijevan, against 1.38 over 34 for Araks Ararat.

  • Defences are close

    Bentonit Ijevan concede 1.82 a game, Araks Ararat 1.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Bentonit Ijevan matches, against 53% for Araks Ararat. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bentonit Ijevan
Araks Ararat
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1443.2
ELO
1488.4
44
ELO · Matches
34
1443.2
Current Team ELO
1488.4
1488.4
Current Opponent ELO
1443.2
-45.17
Current ELO Difference
45.17
0.44
Expected score
0.56
44
History Matches
34
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
46.54
Overperformance
49.34
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
2.40
2.20
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
2.10
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
2.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.68
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
34
1.00
PPG
1.32
25.0%
Win rate
38.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
50.0%
Loss rate
44.1%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
16
0.96
PPG
0.94
28.0%
Win rate
25.0%
12.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
60.0%
Loss rate
56.3%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
56.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
25
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.38
68.2%
Scoring rate
64.7%
54.5%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
76.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
43.8%
4.33
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
34
1.39
Goals Mean
1.38
1.54
Goals Std
1.26
68.2%
Scored 1+ rate
64.7%
29.5%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.82
Goals against per game
1.74
77.3%
Conceding rate
85.3%
2.32
Goals against per game
1.88
84.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
34
1.82
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.47
Conceded Std
1.40
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
31.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
2.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
34
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
2.37
Goal Difference Std
1.92
5.36
Stability score
5.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
34
9
Lead Matches
11
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.94
18
Trailing Matches
12
22.2%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.94
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.84
19
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
1.67
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
3.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
1.67
Current Competition PPG
2.00
2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.32
Portability PPG Std
—
0.70
Portability PPG Range
—
60.78
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-45.17
PPG-0.32
GF0.00
GA0.08
PPG-0.33
PPG0.02
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate3.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Conceded 2+ rate4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate11.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches10
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.45
Stability score-0.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate5.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days5.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.44
Current Team ELO-45.17
Current Opponent ELO45.17
Current ELO Difference-90.35
Expected score-0.13
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bentonit Ijevan

W
Andranik0–2Bentonit Ijevan2 Nov · away
Pick: Andranik 56% · missed
W
Bentonit Ijevan3–2Sardarapat 221 Oct · home
Pick: Bentonit Ijevan 74% · hit
D
Banants II1–1Bentonit Ijevan8 Oct · away
Pick: Bentonit Ijevan 45% · missed
L
BKMA II2–0Bentonit Ijevan1 Sep · away
Pick: BKMA II 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Araks Ararat

W
Araks Ararat4–1Banants II2 Nov · home
Pick: Araks Ararat 47% · hit
L
Mika2–0Araks Ararat20 Oct · away
Pick: Araks Ararat 44% · missed
W
Araks Ararat3–1Ararat-Armenia II13 Oct · home
Pick: Araks Ararat 59% · hit
W
Lernayin Artsakh1–2Araks Ararat8 Oct · away
Pick: Araks Ararat 53% · hit
L
Olympia Yerevan2–1Araks Ararat1 Sep · away
Pick: Olympia Yerevan 54% · hit

About this match

Bentonit Ijevan and Araks Ararat meet in First League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Bentonit Ijevan win 47.8%, draw 24.6%, Araks Ararat win 27.6%. The pick is Bentonit Ijevan win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.1%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.