ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain Group 16 - 10 2026

Berceo vs Alfaro

Berceo Home · Elo 1,468
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alfaro Away · Elo 1,405
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Berceo win
Berceo winPick
39.8%
Draw
28.1%
Alfaro win
32.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%

How much we know

Berceo history49 matches
Alfaro history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Berceo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Berceo are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,468 against 1,405. On rating alone Berceo would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Berceo score more

    1.20 goals a game over 49 matches for Berceo, against 0.84 over 50 for Alfaro.

  • Berceo concede fewer

    Berceo concede 1.43 a game, Alfaro 1.66.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Berceo matches, against 42% for Alfaro. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Berceo
Alfaro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.8
ELO
1404.7
49
ELO · Matches
50
1467.8
Current Team ELO
1404.7
1404.7
Current Opponent ELO
1467.8
63.10
Current ELO Difference
-63.10
0.59
Expected score
0.41
49
History Matches
50
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.09
47.59
Overperformance
43.22
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
50
1.22
PPG
0.78
32.7%
Win rate
18.0%
24.5%
Draw rate
24.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
58.0%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.0%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.38
PPG
0.42
37.5%
Win rate
7.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
19.2%
37.5%
Loss rate
73.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.20
Goals for per game
0.84
71.4%
Scoring rate
52.0%
46.9%
BTTS rate
38.0%
1.42
Goals for per game
0.88
75.0%
Scoring rate
53.8%
41.7%
BTTS rate
46.2%
49
History Matches
50
1.20
Goals Mean
0.84
1.12
Goals Std
0.99
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
52.0%
32.7%
Scored 2+ rate
24.0%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
6.0%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.43
Goals against per game
1.66
69.4%
Conceding rate
72.0%
1.38
Goals against per game
2.12
58.3%
Conceding rate
84.6%
49
History Matches
50
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.32
Conceded Std
1.48
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.0%
22.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.0%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
0.88
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.51
2.32
Stability score
11.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
50
10
Lead Matches
8
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.75
12
Trailing Matches
26
16.7%
Non-loss rate
3.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
181.8
Rest days
190.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.88
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.22
Portability PPG Range
0.13
81.73
Portability Score
88.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO63.10
PPG0.44
GF0.36
GA-0.23
PPG0.95
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate26.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate19.4%
Scored 2+ rate8.7%
Scored 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score-9.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate17.5%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate12.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.09
Portability Score-6.65
Rest days-9.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.72
Current Team ELO63.10
Current Opponent ELO-63.10
Current ELO Difference126.2
Expected score0.18
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Berceo

W
Calasancio0–1Berceo31 Oct · away
Pick: Calasancio 36% · missed
L
Berceo1–3Agoncillo25 Oct · home
Pick: Agoncillo 38% · hit
L
Oyonesa2–0Berceo18 Oct · away
Pick: Oyonesa 58% · hit
W
Pradejón1–2Berceo4 Oct · away
Pick: Berceo 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Alfaro

W
Alfaro1–0Comillas1 Nov · home
Pick: Comillas 36% · missed
L
Varea1–0Alfaro25 Oct · away
Pick: Varea 64% · hit
W
Alfaro1–0Vianés18 Oct · home
Pick: Vianés 36% · missed
W
Alfaro2–1Calahorra4 Oct · home
Pick: Calahorra 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Berceo and Alfaro meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Berceo win 39.8%, draw 28.1%, Alfaro win 32.1%. The pick is Berceo win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.7%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.