ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain Group 16 - 10 2026

Varea vs Anguiano

Varea Home · Elo 1,597
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Anguiano Away · Elo 1,535
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Varea win
Varea winPick
61.8%
Draw
20.9%
Anguiano win
17.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%

How much we know

Varea history58 matches
Anguiano history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Varea are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Varea are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,597 against 1,535. On rating alone Varea would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Varea score more

    1.38 goals a game over 58 matches for Varea, against 1.23 over 48 for Anguiano.

  • Varea concede fewer

    Varea concede 0.84 a game, Anguiano 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Varea matches, against 40% for Anguiano. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Varea
Anguiano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1596.9
ELO
1534.5
58
ELO · Matches
48
1596.9
Current Team ELO
1534.5
1534.5
Current Opponent ELO
1596.9
62.37
Current ELO Difference
-62.37
0.59
Expected score
0.41
58
History Matches
48
0.08
Residual Mean
0.04
56.00
Overperformance
52.52
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
0.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.90
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
48
1.90
PPG
1.54
55.2%
Win rate
43.8%
24.1%
Draw rate
22.9%
20.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
64.6%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
39.6%
15.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
24
1.86
PPG
1.63
55.2%
Win rate
45.8%
20.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
24.1%
Loss rate
29.2%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
13.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
29
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.38
Goals for per game
1.23
75.9%
Scoring rate
70.8%
43.1%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.33
79.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
44.8%
BTTS rate
45.8%
58
History Matches
48
1.38
Goals Mean
1.23
1.11
Goals Std
1.16
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
41.4%
Scored 2+ rate
29.2%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.84
Goals against per game
1.23
55.2%
Conceding rate
64.6%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.38
55.2%
Conceding rate
62.5%
58
History Matches
48
0.84
Conceded Mean
1.23
0.91
Conceded Std
1.36
24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
5.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.4%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
48
0.91
Result entropy
0.97
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.77
9.23
Stability score
3.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
48
20
Lead Matches
13
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.95
12
Trailing Matches
16
41.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
181.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
28
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.92
Portability PPG Range
0.79
56.56
Portability Score
55.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO62.37
PPG0.35
GF0.15
GA-0.38
PPG0.24
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate12.2%
Scored 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.45
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.15
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score6.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.18
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score0.63
Rest days-13.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO62.37
Current Opponent ELO-62.37
Current ELO Difference124.7
Expected score0.18
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Varea

L
Haro Deportivo2–1Varea1 Nov · away
Pick: Varea 43% · missed
L
Varea0–3FC Andorra29 Oct · home
Pick: FC Andorra 38% · hit
W
Varea1–0Alfaro25 Oct · home
Pick: Varea 64% · hit
W
Calasancio0–1Varea18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
D
Oyonesa1–1Varea4 Oct · away
Pick: Varea 35% · missed

Anguiano

W
Anguiano3–0Vianés1 Nov · home
Pick: Anguiano 38% · hit
W
Casalarreina1–2Anguiano25 Oct · away
Pick: Anguiano 48% · hit
W
Anguiano3–0Calahorra18 Oct · home
Pick: Calahorra 40% · missed
L
Haro Deportivo2–1Anguiano4 Oct · away
Pick: Haro Deportivo 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Varea and Anguiano meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Varea win 61.8%, draw 20.9%, Anguiano win 17.3%. The pick is Varea win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.2%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.