ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain Group 16 - 10 2026

Casalarreina vs Yagüe

Casalarreina Home · Elo 1,467
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yagüe Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yagüe win
Casalarreina win
33.2%
Draw
26.1%
Yagüe winPick
40.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.1%
Under 2.539.9%

How much we know

Casalarreina history16 matches
Yagüe history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Yagüe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,467 against 1,475. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.19 goals a game over 16 matches for Casalarreina, against 1.31 over 48 for Yagüe.

  • Yagüe concede fewer

    Casalarreina concede 2.19 a game, Yagüe 1.60.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Casalarreina matches, against 56% for Yagüe. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Casalarreina
Yagüe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.1
ELO
1475.2
16
ELO · Matches
48
1467.1
Current Team ELO
1475.2
1475.2
Current Opponent ELO
1467.1
-8.06
Current ELO Difference
8.06
0.49
Expected score
0.51
16
History Matches
48
-0.11
Residual Mean
-0.03
45.00
Overperformance
48.12
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
48
1.00
PPG
1.27
31.3%
Win rate
29.2%
6.3%
Draw rate
39.6%
62.5%
Loss rate
31.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
24
1.00
PPG
1.25
28.6%
Win rate
29.2%
14.3%
Draw rate
37.5%
57.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
7
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.19
Goals for per game
1.31
62.5%
Scoring rate
68.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.08
85.7%
Scoring rate
58.3%
71.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
16
History Matches
48
1.19
Goals Mean
1.31
1.18
Goals Std
1.24
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.19
Goals against per game
1.60
87.5%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.63
85.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
16
History Matches
48
2.19
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.47
Conceded Std
1.50
68.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.6%
31.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
48
0.76
Result entropy
0.99
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.95
24.40
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
47
2
Lead Matches
9
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.78
6
Trailing Matches
18
0.0%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
1.06
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
546.0
Rest days
182.7
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
10
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
5
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.24
—
Portability PPG Range
0.48
—
Portability Score
67.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-8.06
PPG-0.27
GF-0.13
GA0.58
PPG-0.25
PPG2.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-32
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean0.58
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate29.2%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches-32
Result entropy-0.24
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score23.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches-31
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.56
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-31
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days363.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Long Rest History Matches-18
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO-8.06
Current Opponent ELO8.06
Current ELO Difference-16.12
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-32
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-3.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Casalarreina

L
Calahorra3–0Casalarreina1 Nov · away
Pick: Calahorra 67% · hit
L
Casalarreina1–2Anguiano25 Oct · home
Pick: Anguiano 48% · hit
L
Haro Deportivo5–1Casalarreina18 Oct · away
Pick: Haro Deportivo 70% · hit
L
Calasancio2–1Casalarreina4 Oct · away
Pick: Calasancio 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Yagüe

W
Yagüe4–0Pradejón31 Oct · home
Pick: Yagüe 53% · hit
L
Calahorra5–0Yagüe25 Oct · away
Pick: Calahorra 56% · hit
L
Yagüe0–3San Marcial17 Oct · home
Pick: Yagüe 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Casalarreina and Yagüe meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Casalarreina win 33.2%, draw 26.1%, Yagüe win 40.7%. The pick is Yagüe win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.1%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.