Berdenia Berbourg vs AS Jeunesse Esch
Match result probability Model pick: AS Jeunesse Esch win
Berdenia Berbourg win
24.5%
Draw
25.7%
AS Jeunesse Esch winPick
49.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.0%
No50.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%
How much we know
Berdenia Berbourg history2 matches
AS Jeunesse Esch history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours AS Jeunesse Esch
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why AS Jeunesse Esch are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,478 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
AS Jeunesse Esch score more
1.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Berdenia Berbourg, against 1.23 over 57 for AS Jeunesse Esch.
-
AS Jeunesse Esch concede fewer
Berdenia Berbourg concede 3.00 a game, AS Jeunesse Esch 1.47.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
50% of Berdenia Berbourg matches, against 44% for AS Jeunesse Esch. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AS Jeunesse Esch@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1477.7
ELO
1490.6
2
ELO · Matches
57
1477.7
Current Team ELO
1490.6
1490.6
Current Opponent ELO
1477.7
-12.95
Current ELO Difference
12.95
0.48
Expected score
0.52
2
History Matches
57
-0.46
Residual Mean
0.00
45.77
Overperformance
49.86
-0.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
2
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals 90
2
Matches
57
0.00
PPG
1.25
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
24.6%
100.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.8%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals 100
2
Matches
27
0.00
PPG
1.07
0.0%
Win rate
25.9%
0.0%
Draw rate
29.6%
100.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
2
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
1.23
50.0%
Scoring rate
63.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
45.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.96
50.0%
Scoring rate
59.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.4%
2
History Matches
57
1.00
Goals Mean
1.23
1.00
Goals Std
1.30
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
63.2%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
31.6%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
3.00
Goals against per game
1.47
100.0%
Conceding rate
77.2%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.56
100.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2
History Matches
57
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.00
Conceded Std
1.26
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.6%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.1%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
2
History Matches
57
0.00
Result entropy
0.98
0.00
Goal Difference Std
1.95
100.0
Stability score
2.13
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
2
Eligible Matches
57
0
Lead Matches
16
—
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.79
0
Trailing Matches
15
—
Non-loss rate
6.7%
—
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
2.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
106.0
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
0
Normal Rest History Matches
29
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
1
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
6
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.72
—
Portability PPG Range
2.00
—
Portability Score
40.88
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
2
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-12.95
PPG-1.25
GF-0.23
GA1.53
PPG-1.07
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-55
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate13.2%
History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate9.3%
History Matches-55
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate18.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-55
Conceded Mean1.53
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate61.4%
Conceded 3+ rate28.9%
Venue Conceded Mean1.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches-55
Result entropy-0.98
Goal Difference Std-1.95
Stability score97.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.85
Eligible Matches-55
Lead Matches-16
Trailing Matches-15
Halftime Coverage Matches-55
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.64
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Rest days28.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-29
Long Rest History Matches-22
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Current Team ELO-12.95
Current Opponent ELO12.95
Current ELO Difference-25.90
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-55
Residual Mean-0.46
Overperformance-4.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.60
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Berdenia Berbourg
No earlier results with our pick yet
AS Jeunesse Esch
L
AS Jeunesse Esch0–3FC Differdange 0331 Oct · home
Pick: FC Differdange 03 56% · hit W
Swift Hesperange0–3AS Jeunesse Esch25 Oct · away
Pick: AS Jeunesse Esch 50% · hit W
AS Jeunesse Esch1–0Etzella Ettelbruck18 Oct · home
Pick: AS Jeunesse Esch 56% · hit W
US Rumelange2–5AS Jeunesse Esch30 Aug · away
Pick: US Rumelange 51% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Berdenia Berbourg and AS Jeunesse Esch meet in Cup on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Berdenia Berbourg win 24.5%, draw 25.7%, AS Jeunesse Esch win 49.8%. The pick is AS Jeunesse Esch win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.1%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.