ScoreProb
Thai League 1 Thailand Round 8 2026

BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC

BG Pathum United Home · Elo 1,606
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rayong FC Away · Elo 1,481
True BG Stadium, Pathum Thani Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: BG Pathum United win
BG Pathum United winPick
67.7%
Draw
16.7%
Rayong FC win
15.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%

How much we know

BG Pathum United history75 matches
Rayong FC history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why BG Pathum United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • BG Pathum United are rated 124 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,606 against 1,481. On rating alone BG Pathum United would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • BG Pathum United score more

    1.71 goals a game over 75 matches for BG Pathum United, against 1.40 over 45 for Rayong FC.

  • BG Pathum United concede fewer

    BG Pathum United concede 1.11 a game, Rayong FC 1.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of BG Pathum United matches, against 56% for Rayong FC. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BG Pathum United
Rayong FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1605.5
ELO
1481.3
75
ELO · Matches
45
1605.5
Current Team ELO
1481.3
1481.3
Current Opponent ELO
1605.5
124.3
Current ELO Difference
-124.3
0.67
Expected score
0.33
75
History Matches
45
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.03
55.33
Overperformance
48.27
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
2.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
45
1.75
PPG
1.09
49.3%
Win rate
26.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
28.9%
24.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
30.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
24
1.95
PPG
0.67
56.8%
Win rate
12.5%
24.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
18.9%
Loss rate
58.3%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
37
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
1.40
84.0%
Scoring rate
86.7%
53.3%
BTTS rate
73.3%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.04
86.5%
Scoring rate
79.2%
48.6%
BTTS rate
75.0%
75
History Matches
45
1.71
Goals Mean
1.40
1.48
Goals Std
1.00
84.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.11
Goals against per game
1.67
65.3%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.92
59.5%
Conceding rate
95.8%
75
History Matches
45
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.07
Conceded Std
1.32
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.2%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
45
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.70
5.01
Stability score
2.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
45
32
Lead Matches
9
71.9%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
23
41.2%
Non-loss rate
52.2%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
95.92
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.85
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
11
Competition Season Count
6
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.12
1.40
Portability PPG Range
0.23
52.17
Portability Score
81.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO124.3
PPG0.66
GF0.31
GA-0.56
PPG1.28
PPG0.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches30
Clean-sheet rate21.3%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate36.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches30
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate12.9%
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches30
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate21.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.77
History Matches30
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score2.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.61
Eligible Matches30
Lead Matches23
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate9.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches30
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count6
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range1.17
Portability Score-28.91
Rest days-86.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.85
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.77
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO124.3
Current Opponent ELO-124.3
Current ELO Difference248.5
Expected score0.34
History Matches30
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BG Pathum United

L
Chonburi FC1–0BG Pathum United2 Nov · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 55% · missed
W
Wofoo Tai Po0–3BG Pathum United29 Oct · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 49% · hit
W
BG Pathum United2–0Chiangrai United24 Oct · home
Pick: BG Pathum United 63% · hit
L
Khon Kaen United1–0BG Pathum United21 Oct · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 61% · missed
D
Sisaket United1–1BG Pathum United18 Oct · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 53% · missed

Rayong FC

L
Rayong FC0–4Lamphun Warrior1 Nov · home
Pick: Lamphun Warrior 43% · hit
L
Port FC4–1Rayong FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Port FC 70% · hit
W
Thap Luang United1–2Rayong FC21 Oct · away
Pick: Thap Luang United 35% · missed
D
Rayong FC1–1Uthai Thani17 Oct · home
Pick: Uthai Thani 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

BG Pathum United and Rayong FC meet in Thai League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at True BG Stadium, Pathum Thani. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: BG Pathum United win 67.7%, draw 16.7%, Rayong FC win 15.6%. The pick is BG Pathum United win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.5%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.