ScoreProb
Thai League 1 Thailand Round 8 2026

Ratchaburi vs Buriram United

Ratchaburi Home · Elo 1,623
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Buriram United Away · Elo 1,709
Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Buriram United win
Ratchaburi win
26.3%
Draw
21.4%
Buriram United winPick
52.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.4%
No40.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.2%
Under 2.533.8%

How much we know

Ratchaburi history62 matches
Buriram United history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Buriram United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Buriram United are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,709 against 1,623. On rating alone Buriram United would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.16 goals a game over 62 matches for Ratchaburi, against 2.28 over 90 for Buriram United.

  • Buriram United concede fewer

    Ratchaburi concede 1.10 a game, Buriram United 0.93.

  • Buriram United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Ratchaburi matches, against 66% for Buriram United. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ratchaburi
Buriram United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1623.5
ELO
1709.3
62
ELO · Matches
90
1623.5
Current Team ELO
1709.3
1709.3
Current Opponent ELO
1623.5
-85.83
Current ELO Difference
85.83
0.38
Expected score
0.62
62
History Matches
90
0.09
Residual Mean
0.11
56.48
Overperformance
59.35
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
2.60
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.20
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
2.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
90
1.90
PPG
2.13
58.1%
Win rate
63.3%
16.1%
Draw rate
23.3%
25.8%
Loss rate
13.3%
75.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.2%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
42.2%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
44
2.00
PPG
2.07
59.3%
Win rate
61.4%
22.2%
Draw rate
22.7%
18.5%
Loss rate
15.9%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
70.5%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
27
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.16
Goals for per game
2.28
82.3%
Scoring rate
85.6%
58.1%
BTTS rate
54.4%
2.22
Goals for per game
2.05
88.9%
Scoring rate
86.4%
55.6%
BTTS rate
59.1%
62
History Matches
90
2.16
Goals Mean
2.28
1.96
Goals Std
1.77
82.3%
Scored 1+ rate
85.6%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
65.6%
35.5%
Scored 3+ rate
34.4%
2.22
Venue Goals Mean
2.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.10
Goals against per game
0.93
72.6%
Conceding rate
62.2%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.11
63.0%
Conceding rate
65.9%
62
History Matches
90
1.10
Conceded Mean
0.93
0.89
Conceded Std
0.93
30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.3%
4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
17.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.4%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
17.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.4%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
90
0.87
Result entropy
0.82
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.19
12.66
Stability score
18.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
89
26
Lead Matches
36
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
94.4%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.96
14
Trailing Matches
22
35.7%
Non-loss rate
59.1%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
31.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
89
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.36
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
104.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
16
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.94
40
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.16
16
Long Rest History Matches
12
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
12
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
10
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.93
Portability PPG Range
1.05
62.44
Portability Score
58.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-85.83
PPG-0.23
GF-0.12
GA0.16
PPG-0.07
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-28
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches-28
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.54
History Matches-28
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-5.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches-27
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-27
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score4.27
Rest days77.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-85.83
Current Opponent ELO85.83
Current ELO Difference-171.7
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-28
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ratchaburi

L
Vissel Kobe3–2Ratchaburi3 Nov · away
Pick: Vissel Kobe 53% · hit
W
Sisaket United2–5Ratchaburi30 Oct · away
Pick: Ratchaburi 47% · hit
D
Ratchaburi0–0Kashiwa Reysol27 Oct · home
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 39% · missed
L
Ratchaburi1–2Chonburi FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Ratchaburi 56% · missed
W
Ratchaburi4–2Pattani21 Oct · home
Pick: Ratchaburi 64% · hit

Buriram United

D
Gamba Osaka1–1Buriram United28 Oct · away
Pick: Buriram United 48% · missed
L
Buriram United2–3Sisaket United24 Oct · home
Pick: Buriram United 66% · missed
W
Buriram United8–0DPU Thayang FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Buriram United 62% · hit
W
Pattani0–1Buriram United18 Oct · away
Pick: Buriram United 55% · hit
L
Buriram United0–1Beijing Guoan13 Oct · home
Pick: Buriram United 59% · missed

About this match

Ratchaburi and Buriram United meet in Thai League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ratchaburi win 26.3%, draw 21.4%, Buriram United win 52.3%. The pick is Buriram United win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.2%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.