ScoreProb
2. SNL Slovenia Round 14 2026

Bilje vs Dren Vrhnika

Bilje Home · Elo 1,460
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dren Vrhnika Away · Elo 1,593
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dren Vrhnika win
Bilje win
27.1%
Draw
24.0%
Dren Vrhnika winPick
49.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Bilje history47 matches
Dren Vrhnika history23 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dren Vrhnika are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dren Vrhnika are rated 133 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,460. On rating alone Dren Vrhnika would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Dren Vrhnika score far more

    1.09 goals a game over 47 matches for Bilje, against 2.43 over 23 for Dren Vrhnika.

  • Dren Vrhnika concede fewer

    Bilje concede 1.72 a game, Dren Vrhnika 0.74.

  • Dren Vrhnika games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Bilje matches, against 65% for Dren Vrhnika. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bilje
Dren Vrhnika
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1459.8
ELO
1593.1
47
ELO · Matches
23
1459.8
Current Team ELO
1593.1
1593.1
Current Opponent ELO
1459.8
-133.4
Current ELO Difference
133.4
0.32
Expected score
0.68
47
History Matches
23
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.20
47.18
Overperformance
60.92
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.40
1.30
Goals for per game
2.90
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
23
1.13
PPG
2.22
29.8%
Win rate
69.6%
23.4%
Draw rate
13.0%
46.8%
Loss rate
17.4%
63.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
51.1%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
11
1.38
PPG
2.09
37.5%
Win rate
63.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
37.5%
Loss rate
18.2%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
24
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
2.43
55.3%
Scoring rate
87.0%
46.8%
BTTS rate
43.5%
0.96
Goals for per game
2.45
50.0%
Scoring rate
90.9%
37.5%
BTTS rate
54.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
47
History Matches
23
1.09
Goals Mean
2.43
1.22
Goals Std
1.86
55.3%
Scored 1+ rate
87.0%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
65.2%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
34.8%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
2.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.72
Goals against per game
0.74
80.9%
Conceding rate
47.8%
1.04
Goals against per game
0.91
66.7%
Conceding rate
54.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
47
History Matches
23
1.72
Conceded Mean
0.74
1.86
Conceded Std
0.94
38.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.4%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
0.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
52.2%
44.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
52.2%
44.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
52.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
23
0.96
Result entropy
0.75
2.07
Goal Difference Std
2.22
3.88
Stability score
25.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
23
9
Lead Matches
12
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
1.00
19
Trailing Matches
3
21.1%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.61
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
13
0.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.23
19
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.11
1.07
Portability PPG Range
0.21
51.85
Portability Score
82.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
23
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-133.4
PPG-1.09
GF-1.35
GA0.98
PPG0.00
PPG-0.72
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate31.6%
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate40.9%
History Matches24
Goals Mean-1.35
Goals Std-0.64
Scored 1+ rate-0.32
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches24
Conceded Mean0.98
Conceded Std0.92
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate20.9%
Conceded 3+ rate12.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches24
Result entropy0.21
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score-21.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches24
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.46
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches24
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range0.86
Portability Score-30.76
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.55
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-133.4
Current Opponent ELO133.4
Current ELO Difference-266.7
Expected score-0.37
History Matches24
Residual Mean-0.24
Overperformance-13.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bilje

W
Bilje3–2Tabor Sežana31 Oct · home
Pick: Tabor Sežana 53% · missed
L
Ilirija3–0Bilje27 Oct · away
Pick: Ilirija 63% · hit
L
Bistrica4–3Bilje23 Oct · away
Pick: Bistrica 59% · hit
W
Bilje2–0Krka17 Oct · home
Pick: Bilje 46% · hit
W
Bilje2–0Dekani6 Oct · home
Pick: Bilje 39% · hit

Dren Vrhnika

L
Dren Vrhnika1–4Ilirija31 Oct · home
Pick: Ilirija 47% · hit
L
Krka3–0Dren Vrhnika27 Oct · away
Pick: Dren Vrhnika 58% · missed
L
Dren Vrhnika1–2Beltinci18 Oct · home
Pick: Beltinci 50% · hit
L
Bistrica2–0Dren Vrhnika29 Aug · away
Pick: Dren Vrhnika 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bilje and Dren Vrhnika meet in 2. SNL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bilje win 27.1%, draw 24.0%, Dren Vrhnika win 49.0%. The pick is Dren Vrhnika win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.