ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Spain Group 17 - 10 2026

Binéfar vs Almudévar

Binéfar Home · Elo 1,506
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Almudévar Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Binéfar win
Binéfar winPick
46.6%
Draw
25.7%
Almudévar win
27.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%

How much we know

Binéfar history53 matches
Almudévar history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Binéfar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,506 against 1,493. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Binéfar score more

    1.53 goals a game over 53 matches for Binéfar, against 1.08 over 50 for Almudévar.

  • Defences are close

    Binéfar concede 1.26 a game, Almudévar 1.16.

  • Binéfar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Binéfar matches, against 30% for Almudévar. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Binéfar
Almudévar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.5
ELO
1493.1
53
ELO · Matches
50
1506.5
Current Team ELO
1493.1
1493.1
Current Opponent ELO
1506.5
13.35
Current ELO Difference
-13.35
0.52
Expected score
0.48
53
History Matches
50
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.63
Overperformance
49.80
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
2.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
50
1.36
PPG
1.32
35.8%
Win rate
34.0%
28.3%
Draw rate
30.0%
35.8%
Loss rate
36.0%
71.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
54.7%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
24
1.44
PPG
1.08
40.7%
Win rate
25.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
37.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
27
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.53
Goals for per game
1.08
77.4%
Scoring rate
66.0%
52.8%
BTTS rate
42.0%
1.74
Goals for per game
0.88
77.8%
Scoring rate
58.3%
48.1%
BTTS rate
41.7%
53
History Matches
50
1.53
Goals Mean
1.08
1.28
Goals Std
1.11
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
66.0%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
26.0%
22.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.16
67.9%
Conceding rate
72.0%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.29
59.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
53
History Matches
50
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.22
Conceded Std
1.01
35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.0%
15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.0%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
50
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.53
Stability score
0.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
50
21
Lead Matches
17
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
58.8%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.73
16
Trailing Matches
14
31.3%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.8
Rest days
181.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.04
60.52
Portability Score
96.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO13.35
PPG0.04
GF0.45
GA0.10
PPG0.36
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate15.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate11.4%
Scored 2+ rate15.5%
Scored 3+ rate12.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score0.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.25
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate12.6%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate9.8%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.71
Portability Score-35.48
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Current Team ELO13.35
Current Opponent ELO-13.35
Current ELO Difference26.71
Expected score0.04
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Binéfar

D
Real Zaragoza II3–3Binéfar1 Nov · away
Pick: Binéfar 41% · missed
D
Binéfar1–1Huesca II25 Oct · home
Pick: Binéfar 36% · missed
W
Atlético Monzón1–3Binéfar18 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Monzón 65% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Almudévar

W
Almudévar2–0Andorra CF1 Nov · home
Pick: Almudévar 40% · hit
L
Real Zaragoza II4–0Almudévar24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Zaragoza II 38% · hit
D
Almudévar0–0CD Sietamo17 Oct · home
Pick: Almudévar 67% · missed
L
Almudévar0–1Illueca4 Oct · home
Pick: Almudévar 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Binéfar and Almudévar meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Binéfar win 46.6%, draw 25.7%, Almudévar win 27.7%. The pick is Binéfar win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.8%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.