ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Spain Group 17 - 10 2026

Brea vs Atlético Monzón

Brea Home · Elo 1,466
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Monzón Away · Elo 1,656
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Monzón win
Brea win
25.6%
Draw
28.0%
Atlético Monzón winPick
46.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.1%
No55.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.5%
Under 2.556.5%

How much we know

Brea history16 matches
Atlético Monzón history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Atlético Monzón are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atlético Monzón are rated 190 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,656 against 1,466. On rating alone Atlético Monzón would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Atlético Monzón score far more

    0.56 goals a game over 16 matches for Brea, against 1.90 over 58 for Atlético Monzón.

  • Atlético Monzón concede fewer

    Brea concede 1.13 a game, Atlético Monzón 0.95.

  • Atlético Monzón games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Brea matches, against 55% for Atlético Monzón. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brea
Atlético Monzón
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1465.5
ELO
1655.6
16
ELO · Matches
58
1465.5
Current Team ELO
1655.6
1655.6
Current Opponent ELO
1465.5
-190.1
Current ELO Difference
190.1
0.25
Expected score
0.75
16
History Matches
58
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.13
45.83
Overperformance
59.72
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.50
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.90
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.95
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
58
0.88
PPG
2.16
18.8%
Win rate
67.2%
31.3%
Draw rate
13.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
19.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
6.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
29
1.00
PPG
1.97
22.2%
Win rate
62.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
10.3%
44.4%
Loss rate
27.6%
44.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
65.5%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
48.3%
0.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
9
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.56
Goals for per game
1.90
43.8%
Scoring rate
81.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
44.8%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.90
55.6%
Scoring rate
82.8%
44.4%
BTTS rate
58.6%
16
History Matches
58
0.56
Goals Mean
1.90
0.70
Goals Std
1.52
43.8%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
12.5%
Scored 2+ rate
53.4%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
32.8%
0.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
0.95
68.8%
Conceding rate
56.9%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.34
66.7%
Conceding rate
72.4%
16
History Matches
58
1.13
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.05
Conceded Std
1.04
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.6%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.9%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
56.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
56.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
58
0.93
Result entropy
0.78
1.22
Goal Difference Std
1.79
6.80
Stability score
22.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
58
1
Lead Matches
25
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.93
6
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.25
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
546.2
Rest days
153.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
8
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.16
7
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.16
—
Portability PPG Range
0.39
—
Portability Score
75.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-190.1
PPG-1.28
GF-1.33
GA0.18
PPG-0.97
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-42
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate37.3%
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate27.2%
History Matches-42
Goals Mean-1.33
Goals Std-0.81
Scored 1+ rate-0.37
Scored 2+ rate-0.41
Scored 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Goals Mean-1.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.15
History Matches-42
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-42
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.57
Stability score-15.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.95
Eligible Matches-42
Lead Matches-24
Lead Win Rate8.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-42
First Half Goals For Mean-0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days392.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.41
Long Rest History Matches-17
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.02
Current Team ELO-190.1
Current Opponent ELO190.1
Current ELO Difference-380.1
Expected score-0.50
History Matches-42
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-13.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brea

W
Fraga0–2Brea31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
D
Brea0–0Robres25 Oct · home
Pick: Robres 38% · missed
L
Caspe2–1Brea18 Oct · away
Pick: Caspe 54% · hit
W
Brea1–0CDJ Tamarite4 Oct · home
Pick: CDJ Tamarite 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlético Monzón

D
Atlético Monzón2–2Cuarte1 Nov · home
Pick: Atlético Monzón 47% · missed
D
Épila2–2Atlético Monzón24 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Monzón 40% · missed
L
Atlético Monzón1–3Binéfar18 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Monzón 65% · missed
W
Atlético Monzón2–0Huesca II4 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Monzón 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Brea and Atlético Monzón meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Brea win 25.6%, draw 28.0%, Atlético Monzón win 46.3%. The pick is Atlético Monzón win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.5%. Both teams to score: 44.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.