Bình Phước vs Da Nang
Match result probability Model pick: Bình Phước win
Bình Phước winPick
48.3%
Draw
25.1%
Da Nang win
26.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.6%
No48.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%
How much we know
Bình Phước history34 matches
Da Nang history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Bình Phước
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Bình Phước are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Bình Phước are rated 111 Elo points higher
Elo 1,597 against 1,486. On rating alone Bình Phước would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Bình Phước score more
1.91 goals a game over 34 matches for Bình Phước, against 1.33 over 45 for Da Nang.
-
Bình Phước concede fewer
Bình Phước concede 0.74 a game, Da Nang 1.44.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of Bình Phước matches, against 51% for Da Nang. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Da Nang@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1596.9
ELO
1485.6
34
ELO · Matches
45
1596.9
Current Team ELO
1485.6
1485.6
Current Opponent ELO
1596.9
111.3
Current ELO Difference
-111.3
0.65
Expected score
0.35
34
History Matches
45
0.14
Residual Mean
-0.01
59.00
Overperformance
49.39
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
1.90
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals 90
34
Matches
45
2.12
PPG
1.20
64.7%
Win rate
28.9%
17.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
17.6%
Loss rate
37.8%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.1%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals 100
18
Matches
21
2.61
PPG
0.86
83.3%
Win rate
14.3%
11.1%
Draw rate
42.9%
5.6%
Loss rate
42.9%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
18
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.91
Goals for per game
1.33
82.4%
Scoring rate
77.8%
41.2%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.19
94.4%
Scoring rate
76.2%
44.4%
BTTS rate
76.2%
34
History Matches
45
1.91
Goals Mean
1.33
1.40
Goals Std
1.01
82.4%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
61.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
29.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
2.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.74
Goals against per game
1.44
55.9%
Conceding rate
77.8%
0.61
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Conceding rate
95.2%
34
History Matches
45
0.74
Conceded Mean
1.44
0.78
Conceded Std
1.27
14.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.6%
0.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
4.8%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
4.8%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
34
History Matches
45
0.81
Result entropy
0.99
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.68
18.63
Stability score
0.54
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
34
Eligible Matches
45
14
Lead Matches
14
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.69
2
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
153.1
Rest days
152.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
18
Long Rest History Matches
14
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.25
Portability PPG Range
1.08
82.71
Portability Score
53.19
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
34
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO111.3
PPG0.92
GF0.58
GA-0.71
PPG1.75
PPG-0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate45.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate4.6%
Scored 2+ rate21.8%
Scored 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.71
Conceded Std-0.50
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.90
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score18.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate35.7%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.83
Portability Score29.52
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.19
Current Team ELO111.3
Current Opponent ELO-111.3
Current ELO Difference222.5
Expected score0.31
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance9.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Bình Phước
L
Hai Phong1–0Bình Phước31 Oct · away
Pick: Hai Phong 42% · hit L
Bình Phước0–4Nam Dinh24 Oct · home
Pick: Nam Dinh 40% · hit D
Bắc Ninh0–0Bình Phước18 Oct · away
Pick: Bình Phước 45% · missed W
Bình Phước4–3Dong Thap6 Oct · home
Pick: Bình Phước 47% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Da Nang
W
Ho Chi Minh0–1Da Nang1 Nov · away
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 63% · missed W
Da Nang1–0Ha Noi25 Oct · home
Pick: Da Nang 35% · hit L
Da Nang1–5Hai Phong17 Oct · home
Pick: Da Nang 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Bình Phước and Da Nang meet in V.League 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Bình Phước win 48.3%, draw 25.1%, Da Nang win 26.6%. The pick is Bình Phước win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.