ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Blauw Geel vs UDI '19

Blauw Geel Home · Elo 1,481
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
UDI '19 Away · Elo 1,457
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Blauw Geel win
Blauw Geel winPick
43.4%
Draw
22.4%
UDI '19 win
34.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%

How much we know

Blauw Geel history53 matches
UDI '19 history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Blauw Geel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,481 against 1,457. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.53 goals a game over 53 matches for Blauw Geel, against 1.65 over 37 for UDI '19.

  • Blauw Geel concede fewer

    Blauw Geel concede 1.51 a game, UDI '19 2.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Blauw Geel matches, against 65% for UDI '19. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Blauw Geel
UDI '19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.2
ELO
1456.8
53
ELO · Matches
37
1481.2
Current Team ELO
1456.8
1456.8
Current Opponent ELO
1481.2
24.38
Current ELO Difference
-24.38
0.54
Expected score
0.46
53
History Matches
37
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
48.56
Overperformance
46.73
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.70
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
37
1.40
PPG
1.24
39.6%
Win rate
35.1%
20.8%
Draw rate
18.9%
39.6%
Loss rate
45.9%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
62.3%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
37.7%
Over 3.5 rate
54.1%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
17
1.42
PPG
1.41
38.5%
Win rate
41.2%
26.9%
Draw rate
17.6%
34.6%
Loss rate
41.2%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
52.9%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
26
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.65
71.7%
Scoring rate
81.1%
50.9%
BTTS rate
67.6%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.65
76.9%
Scoring rate
82.4%
53.8%
BTTS rate
58.8%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
37
1.53
Goals Mean
1.65
1.38
Goals Std
1.42
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.1%
43.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
24.5%
Scored 3+ rate
24.3%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
2.05
71.7%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.88
69.2%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
37
1.51
Conceded Mean
2.05
1.22
Conceded Std
1.49
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.2%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.5%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
37
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.99
3.52
Stability score
5.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
32
17
Lead Matches
10
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.80
16
Trailing Matches
11
25.0%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.13
Portability PPG Std
—
0.25
Portability PPG Range
—
79.69
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO24.38
PPG0.15
GF-0.12
GA-0.54
PPG-1.50
PPG0.01
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate5.4%
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate2.9%
Scored 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.54
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches16
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-1.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate0.6%
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate15.9%
Trailing Win Rate9.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO24.38
Current Opponent ELO-24.38
Current ELO Difference48.76
Expected score0.07
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Blauw Geel

L
TOGB3–1Blauw Geel24 Oct · away
Pick: TOGB 41% · hit
L
Blauw Geel1–3Poortugaal17 Oct · home
Pick: Blauw Geel 45% · missed
D
Blauw Geel1–1UNA4 Oct · home
Pick: Blauw Geel 39% · missed
L
Sportlust '463–1Blauw Geel1 Sep · away
Pick: Sportlust '46 41% · hit
L
Achilles Veen3–2Blauw Geel29 Aug · away
Pick: Blauw Geel 46% · missed

UDI '19

L
UDI '192–3Poortugaal24 Oct · home
Pick: UDI '19 54% · missed
W
UNA0–2UDI '1918 Oct · away
Pick: UNA 48% · missed
W
GOES0–4UDI '194 Oct · away
Pick: GOES 40% · missed
W
UDI '192–1TOGB30 Aug · home
Pick: UDI '19 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Blauw Geel and UDI '19 meet in Derde Divisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Blauw Geel win 43.4%, draw 22.4%, UDI '19 win 34.2%. The pick is Blauw Geel win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.5%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.