ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Purmersteijn vs Hollandia

Purmersteijn Home · Elo 1,500
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hollandia Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Purmersteijn win
Purmersteijn winPick
43.1%
Draw
19.7%
Hollandia win
37.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.1%
Under 2.536.9%

How much we know

Purmersteijn history3 matches
Hollandia history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Purmersteijn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,502. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Purmersteijn score more

    1.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Purmersteijn, against 1.50 over 6 for Hollandia.

  • Hollandia concede fewer

    Purmersteijn concede 3.00 a game, Hollandia 1.17.

  • Purmersteijn games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Purmersteijn matches, against 50% for Hollandia. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Purmersteijn
Hollandia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.7
ELO
1502.3
3
ELO · Matches
6
1499.7
Current Team ELO
1502.3
1502.3
Current Opponent ELO
1499.7
-2.62
Current ELO Difference
2.62
0.50
Expected score
0.50
3
History Matches
6
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
50.34
Overperformance
50.37
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
1.33
PPG
1.80
1.67
Goals for per game
1.40
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
60.0%
3
Matches
6
1.33
PPG
1.67
1.67
Goals for per game
1.50
3.00
Goals against per game
1.17
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.96
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.17
2.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.92
3.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
6
1.33
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
3.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
3
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
4.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
2
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
3
History Matches
6
1.67
Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Goals Std
0.96
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.00
Goals against per game
1.17
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
6
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.17
2.83
Conceded Std
0.90
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
4.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
6
1.00
Result entropy
0.92
3.40
Goal Difference Std
1.49
0.00
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
5
1
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
1
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
1.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.20
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.20
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.60
3.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
2
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
2
Long Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
2
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-2.62
PPG-0.33
GF0.17
GA1.83
PPG2.00
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.47
PPG-0.33
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate16.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate16.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean1.83
Conceded Std1.93
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate33.3%
Venue Conceded Mean3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.93
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std1.91
Stability score-7.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.91
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean1.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean2.70
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match2.00
Current Team ELO-2.62
Current Opponent ELO2.62
Current ELO Difference-5.25
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Purmersteijn

L
TEC5–2Purmersteijn25 Oct · away
Pick: TEC 60% · hit
W
Purmersteijn3–0Sparta Nijkerk17 Oct · home
Pick: Purmersteijn 45% · hit
W
Hoogeveen1–2Purmersteijn30 Aug · away
Pick: Hoogeveen 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hollandia

W
Eemdijk0–1Hollandia31 Oct · away
Pick: Eemdijk 62% · missed
D
Hollandia2–2VV Scherpenzeel25 Oct · home
Pick: VV Scherpenzeel 43% · missed
W
SVZW0–1Hollandia17 Oct · away
Pick: SVZW 45% · missed
D
Sparta Nijkerk5–5Hollandia29 Aug · away
Pick: Sparta Nijkerk 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Purmersteijn and Hollandia meet in Derde Divisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Purmersteijn win 43.1%, draw 19.7%, Hollandia win 37.2%. The pick is Purmersteijn win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.1%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.