ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

EVV vs Vvsb

EVV Home · Elo 1,469
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vvsb Away · Elo 1,567
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vvsb win
EVV win
24.0%
Draw
20.9%
Vvsb winPick
55.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.5%
No36.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.1%
Under 2.530.9%

How much we know

EVV history8 matches
Vvsb history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Vvsb are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vvsb are rated 98 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,567 against 1,469. On rating alone Vvsb would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.00 goals a game over 8 matches for EVV, against 1.91 over 53 for Vvsb.

  • Vvsb concede fewer

    EVV concede 2.88 a game, Vvsb 1.36.

  • EVV games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of EVV matches, against 64% for Vvsb. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
EVV
Vvsb
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.0
ELO
1567.2
8
ELO · Matches
53
1469.0
Current Team ELO
1567.2
1567.2
Current Opponent ELO
1469.0
-98.24
Current ELO Difference
98.24
0.36
Expected score
0.64
8
History Matches
53
-0.20
Residual Mean
0.06
44.36
Overperformance
54.05
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
3.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
8
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.88
Goals against per game
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
2.88
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
2.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.71
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
8
Matches
53
1.00
PPG
1.75
25.0%
Win rate
52.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
17.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
30.2%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.8%
2.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
28
0.50
PPG
1.46
0.0%
Win rate
42.9%
50.0%
Draw rate
17.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
39.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
4
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.91
100.0%
Scoring rate
81.1%
87.5%
BTTS rate
56.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.79
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
8
History Matches
53
2.00
Goals Mean
1.91
1.00
Goals Std
1.74
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.1%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
50.9%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.4%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.88
Goals against per game
1.36
87.5%
Conceding rate
75.5%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
82.1%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
8
History Matches
53
2.88
Conceded Mean
1.36
2.89
Conceded Std
1.21
62.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.0%
2.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
8
History Matches
53
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
2.71
Goal Difference Std
2.28
5.36
Stability score
9.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
47
2
Lead Matches
17
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.88
5
Trailing Matches
16
20.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
3
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
3
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.25
—
Portability PPG Range
0.50
—
Portability Score
66.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
8
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-98.24
PPG-0.75
GF0.09
GA1.52
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.96
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-45
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-45
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std-0.74
Scored 1+ rate18.9%
Scored 2+ rate11.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches-45
Conceded Mean1.52
Conceded Std1.68
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate28.5%
Conceded 3+ rate33.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.88
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.71
History Matches-45
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score-3.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.42
Eligible Matches-40
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate17.6%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches-40
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean1.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.54
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Long Rest History Matches-22
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.59
Current Team ELO-98.24
Current Opponent ELO98.24
Current ELO Difference-196.5
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-45
Residual Mean-0.25
Overperformance-9.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

EVV

L
Vvsb4–0EVV28 Oct · away
Pick: Vvsb 74% · hit
L
Excelsior Maassluis1–0EVV24 Oct · away
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 78% · hit
D
EVV3–3Roosendaal18 Oct · home
Pick: Roosendaal 54% · missed
L
UNA4–1EVV30 Aug · away
Pick: UNA 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vvsb

W
Vvsb4–0EVV28 Oct · home
Pick: Vvsb 74% · hit
L
Vvsb2–4Zwaluwen24 Oct · home
Pick: Vvsb 63% · missed
D
TOGB3–3Vvsb17 Oct · away
Pick: Vvsb 41% · missed
D
Groene Ster3–3Vvsb30 Aug · away
Pick: Vvsb 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

EVV and Vvsb meet in Derde Divisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: EVV win 24.0%, draw 20.9%, Vvsb win 55.1%. The pick is Vvsb win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.1%. Both teams to score: 63.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.