ScoreProb
Toppserien Norway Round 22 2026

Bodø / Glimt W vs Rosenborg W

Bodø / Glimt W Home · Elo 1,347
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rosenborg W Away · Elo 1,617
Aspmyra Stadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rosenborg W win
Bodø / Glimt W win
3.8%
Draw
5.8%
Rosenborg W winPick
90.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.1%
No57.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.580.2%
Under 2.519.8%

How much we know

Bodø / Glimt W history40 matches
Rosenborg W history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (90.5%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Rosenborg W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rosenborg W are rated 270 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,617 against 1,347. On rating alone Rosenborg W would be expected to take 83% of the points on offer.

  • Rosenborg W score far more

    0.75 goals a game over 40 matches for Bodø / Glimt W, against 2.08 over 40 for Rosenborg W.

  • Rosenborg W concede fewer

    Bodø / Glimt W concede 3.00 a game, Rosenborg W 1.10.

  • Bodø / Glimt W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Bodø / Glimt W matches, against 58% for Rosenborg W. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bodø / Glimt W
Rosenborg W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1346.9
ELO
1617.1
40
ELO · Matches
40
1346.9
Current Team ELO
1617.1
1617.1
Current Opponent ELO
1346.9
-270.3
Current ELO Difference
270.3
0.17
Expected score
0.83
40
History Matches
40
-0.19
Residual Mean
0.14
37.16
Overperformance
59.34
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
4.60
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
2.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.90
5.20
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
5.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
40
0.55
PPG
2.05
15.0%
Win rate
62.5%
10.0%
Draw rate
17.5%
75.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
77.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.5%
47.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.5%
2.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
21
0.53
PPG
1.90
15.8%
Win rate
57.1%
5.3%
Draw rate
19.0%
78.9%
Loss rate
23.8%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
84.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
47.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
19
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.75
Goals for per game
2.08
55.0%
Scoring rate
82.5%
47.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.68
Goals for per game
1.90
52.6%
Scoring rate
81.0%
47.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
0.62
Goals for per game
1.77
61.5%
Scoring rate
84.6%
61.5%
BTTS rate
53.8%
40
History Matches
40
0.75
Goals Mean
2.08
0.89
Goals Std
1.72
55.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
12.5%
Scored 2+ rate
55.0%
5.0%
Scored 3+ rate
35.0%
0.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.00
Goals against per game
1.10
87.5%
Conceding rate
65.0%
2.68
Goals against per game
1.43
89.5%
Conceding rate
76.2%
4.38
Goals against per game
1.08
92.3%
Conceding rate
69.2%
40
History Matches
40
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.10
2.33
Conceded Std
1.09
70.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
2.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
7.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
40
0.67
Result entropy
0.84
2.75
Goal Difference Std
2.17
33.50
Stability score
16.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
40
5
Lead Matches
23
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.47
Lead Points Retention
0.86
24
Trailing Matches
8
8.3%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.30
First Half Goals For Mean
1.03
1.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
1.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.53
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
13
Matches
13
0.15
PPG
2.08
0.0%
Win rate
61.5%
15.4%
Draw rate
23.1%
84.6%
Loss rate
15.4%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
84.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
61.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
2.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
13
Current Competition Matches
13
0.15
Current Competition PPG
2.08
-3.77
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.69
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.59
Portability PPG Range
0.04
63.02
Portability Score
96.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-270.3
PPG-1.50
GF-1.33
GA1.90
PPG-1.92
PPG-1.38
PPG-2.00
PPG-2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate27.5%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate28.3%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-1.33
Goals Std-0.84
Scored 1+ rate-0.28
Scored 2+ rate-0.43
Scored 3+ rate-0.30
Venue Goals Mean-1.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.81
History Matches0
Conceded Mean1.90
Conceded Std1.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate40.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean4.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.23
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std0.58
Stability score17.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.40
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate-0.38
Lead Points Retention-0.39
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.80
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.92
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.46
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.55
Portability Score-33.28
Rest days-7.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.82
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.49
Current Team ELO-270.3
Current Opponent ELO270.3
Current ELO Difference-540.5
Expected score-0.65
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.33
Overperformance-22.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bodø / Glimt W

L
Molde W3–1Bodø / Glimt W31 Oct · away
Pick: Molde W 90% · hit
L
Bodø / Glimt W1–2Haugesund W23 Oct · home
Pick: Haugesund W 83% · hit
L
Bodø / Glimt W1–4Lyn W16 Oct · home
Pick: Lyn W 81% · hit
L
Hønefoss W3–0Bodø / Glimt W4 Oct · away
Pick: Hønefoss W 79% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rosenborg W

W
Rosenborg W6–0Røa W1 Nov · home
Pick: Rosenborg W 81% · hit
W
Hønefoss W0–2Rosenborg W24 Oct · away
Pick: Rosenborg W 69% · hit
D
Rosenborg W1–1Brann W17 Oct · home
Pick: Brann W 60% · missed
D
Vålerenga W1–1Rosenborg W4 Oct · away
Pick: Vålerenga W 50% · missed
L
SeaSters Odesa W1–0Rosenborg W26 Aug · away
Pick: Rosenborg W 52% · missed

About this match

Bodø / Glimt W and Rosenborg W meet in Toppserien on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Aspmyra Stadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bodø / Glimt W win 3.8%, draw 5.8%, Rosenborg W win 90.5%. The pick is Rosenborg W win. Over 2.5 goals: 80.2%. Both teams to score: 42.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.