ScoreProb
Toppserien Norway Round 22 2026

Brann W vs Molde W

Brann W Home · Elo 1,733
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Molde W Away · Elo 1,548
Brann Stadion, Bergen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brann W win
Brann W winPick
84.2%
Draw
10.5%
Molde W win
5.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.7%
Under 2.525.3%

How much we know

Brann W history50 matches
Molde W history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (84.2%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Brann W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brann W are rated 185 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,733 against 1,548. On rating alone Brann W would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Brann W score more

    3.02 goals a game over 50 matches for Brann W, against 2.11 over 36 for Molde W.

  • Brann W concede fewer

    Brann W concede 0.54 a game, Molde W 1.56.

  • Molde W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Brann W matches, against 78% for Molde W. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brann W
Molde W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1732.9
ELO
1547.8
50
ELO · Matches
36
1732.9
Current Team ELO
1547.8
1547.8
Current Opponent ELO
1732.9
185.1
Current ELO Difference
-185.1
0.74
Expected score
0.26
50
History Matches
36
0.24
Residual Mean
0.07
67.00
Overperformance
54.22
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.60
3.60
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.80
PPG
1.40
3.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.50
Goals against per game
1.50
90.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
36
2.62
PPG
1.72
84.0%
Win rate
50.0%
10.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
6.0%
Loss rate
27.8%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
38.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.9%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
18
2.61
PPG
1.44
82.1%
Win rate
38.9%
14.3%
Draw rate
27.8%
3.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
28
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
3.02
Goals for per game
2.11
92.0%
Scoring rate
88.9%
34.0%
BTTS rate
80.6%
3.04
Goals for per game
1.89
92.9%
Scoring rate
94.4%
32.1%
BTTS rate
94.4%
3.21
Goals for per game
1.57
92.9%
Scoring rate
78.6%
28.6%
BTTS rate
64.3%
50
History Matches
36
3.02
Goals Mean
2.11
2.06
Goals Std
1.39
92.0%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
76.0%
Scored 2+ rate
61.1%
54.0%
Scored 3+ rate
38.9%
3.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.54
Goals against per game
1.56
38.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
0.39
Goals against per game
1.56
35.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.29
Goals against per game
1.71
28.6%
Conceding rate
78.6%
50
History Matches
36
0.54
Conceded Mean
1.56
0.85
Conceded Std
1.12
10.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
0.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
62.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
71.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
62.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
62.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
36
0.50
Result entropy
0.94
2.39
Goal Difference Std
2.01
50.34
Stability score
5.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
36
31
Lead Matches
16
93.5%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.85
6
Trailing Matches
7
66.7%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
1.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
1.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.25
0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.83
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
15
2.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
14
Matches
14
2.71
PPG
1.29
85.7%
Win rate
35.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
21.4%
0.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
14
Current Competition Matches
14
2.71
Current Competition PPG
1.29
2.93
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.14
5
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.71
64.92
Portability Score
58.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO185.1
PPG0.90
GF0.91
GA-1.02
PPG1.43
PPG1.16
PPG1.40
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate50.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate64.3%
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.91
Goals Std0.67
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate14.9%
Scored 3+ rate15.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.78
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-1.02
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-1.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.45
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score44.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate12.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate38.1%
Trailing Win Rate50.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.74
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.07
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range0.04
Portability Score6.58
Rest days-3.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.72
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.86
Current Team ELO185.1
Current Opponent ELO-185.1
Current ELO Difference370.2
Expected score0.49
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance12.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brann W

W
LSK Kvinner W1–4Brann W1 Nov · away
Pick: Brann W 76% · hit
W
Brann W3–0Czarni Sosnowiec W28 Oct · home
Pick: Brann W 65% · hit
W
Brann W1–0Vålerenga W24 Oct · home
Pick: Brann W 73% · hit
D
Rosenborg W1–1Brann W17 Oct · away
Pick: Brann W 60% · missed
L
Brann W1–2Fortuna Ålesund W4 Oct · home
Pick: Brann W 69% · missed

Molde W

W
Molde W3–1Bodø / Glimt W31 Oct · home
Pick: Molde W 90% · hit
L
Lyn W2–1Molde W24 Oct · away
Pick: Lyn W 50% · hit
L
Haugesund W2–0Molde W17 Oct · away
Pick: Molde W 42% · missed
L
Molde W0–3Stabæk W4 Oct · home
Pick: Molde W 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Brann W and Molde W meet in Toppserien on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Brann Stadion, Bergen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Brann W win 84.2%, draw 10.5%, Molde W win 5.3%. The pick is Brann W win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.7%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.