ScoreProb
Toppserien Norway Round 22 2026

Røa W vs Haugesund W

Røa W Home · Elo 1,412
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Haugesund W Away · Elo 1,537
Roabanen, Oslo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Røa W win
Røa W winPick
40.4%
Draw
26.7%
Haugesund W win
32.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

Røa W history41 matches
Haugesund W history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Røa W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Haugesund W are rated 126 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,412. On rating alone Haugesund W would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Haugesund W score far more

    0.80 goals a game over 41 matches for Røa W, against 2.00 over 36 for Haugesund W.

  • Defences are close

    Røa W concede 1.88 a game, Haugesund W 1.72.

  • Haugesund W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Røa W matches, against 75% for Haugesund W. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Røa W
Haugesund W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1411.6
ELO
1537.3
41
ELO · Matches
36
1411.6
Current Team ELO
1537.3
1537.3
Current Opponent ELO
1411.6
-125.7
Current ELO Difference
125.7
0.33
Expected score
0.67
41
History Matches
36
-0.11
Residual Mean
0.05
42.94
Overperformance
53.19
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.90
Goals against per game
2.80
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
36
0.73
PPG
1.69
14.6%
Win rate
50.0%
29.3%
Draw rate
19.4%
56.1%
Loss rate
30.6%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
97.2%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
24.4%
Over 3.5 rate
47.2%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
18
0.85
PPG
1.33
10.0%
Win rate
33.3%
55.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
35.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
20
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
61.0%
Scoring rate
86.1%
56.1%
BTTS rate
72.2%
0.95
Goals for per game
1.89
70.0%
Scoring rate
88.9%
70.0%
BTTS rate
77.8%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.36
58.3%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
71.4%
41
History Matches
36
0.80
Goals Mean
2.00
0.74
Goals Std
1.33
61.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.1%
19.5%
Scored 2+ rate
61.1%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
0.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.88
Goals against per game
1.72
87.8%
Conceding rate
86.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.78
90.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.57
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
36
1.88
Conceded Mean
1.72
1.47
Conceded Std
1.45
43.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
29.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
36
0.88
Result entropy
0.94
1.61
Goal Difference Std
2.32
12.15
Stability score
6.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
36
6
Lead Matches
12
16.7%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.89
15
Trailing Matches
11
26.7%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
1.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
12
Matches
14
0.58
PPG
1.07
8.3%
Win rate
28.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
21.4%
58.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
78.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
12
Current Competition Matches
14
0.58
Current Competition PPG
1.07
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.21
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.21
Portability PPG Range
1.02
82.66
Portability Score
49.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-125.7
PPG-0.96
GF-1.20
GA0.16
PPG-0.49
PPG-0.48
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate25.1%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate18.9%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-1.20
Goals Std-0.59
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate-0.42
Scored 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Goals Mean-0.94
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.36
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.70
Stability score5.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.67
Lead Points Retention-0.56
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate17.6%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.49
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.12
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.40
Portability PPG Range-0.81
Portability Score33.14
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.04
Current Team ELO-125.7
Current Opponent ELO125.7
Current ELO Difference-251.3
Expected score-0.35
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-10.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Røa W

L
Rosenborg W6–0Røa W1 Nov · away
Pick: Rosenborg W 81% · hit
W
Røa W2–1Stabæk W24 Oct · home
Pick: Stabæk W 52% · missed
L
Fortuna Ålesund W1–0Røa W16 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Ålesund W 79% · hit
W
Røa W2–1LSK Kvinner W4 Oct · home
Pick: LSK Kvinner W 52% · missed
L
Røa W1–3Lyn W31 Aug · home
Pick: Lyn W 42% · hit

Haugesund W

L
Haugesund W0–1Hønefoss W31 Oct · home
Pick: Haugesund W 52% · missed
W
Bodø / Glimt W1–2Haugesund W23 Oct · away
Pick: Haugesund W 83% · hit
W
Haugesund W2–0Molde W17 Oct · home
Pick: Molde W 42% · missed
L
Lyn W4–3Haugesund W4 Oct · away
Pick: Lyn W 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Røa W and Haugesund W meet in Toppserien on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Roabanen, Oslo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Røa W win 40.4%, draw 26.7%, Haugesund W win 32.9%. The pick is Røa W win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.