Boiro vs Arenteiro
Match result probability Model pick: Boiro win
Boiro winPick
44.2%
Draw
28.1%
Arenteiro win
27.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes44.0%
No56.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%
How much we know
Boiro history49 matches
Arenteiro history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Boiro
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Boiro are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Boiro are rated 169 Elo points higher
Elo 1,546 against 1,377. On rating alone Boiro would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.
-
Boiro score far more
1.33 goals a game over 49 matches for Boiro, against 0.77 over 57 for Arenteiro.
-
Boiro concede fewer
Boiro concede 0.78 a game, Arenteiro 1.44.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
37% of Boiro matches, against 33% for Arenteiro. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arenteiro@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1545.9
ELO
1377.3
49
ELO · Matches
57
1545.9
Current Team ELO
1377.3
1377.3
Current Opponent ELO
1545.9
168.6
Current ELO Difference
-168.6
0.73
Expected score
0.27
49
History Matches
57
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.11
53.65
Overperformance
42.09
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.20
2.60
Goals for per game
0.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.30
1.80
Goals for per game
0.40
0.70
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
57
1.59
PPG
0.77
40.8%
Win rate
15.8%
36.7%
Draw rate
29.8%
22.4%
Loss rate
54.4%
61.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.2%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
29
1.58
PPG
0.48
42.3%
Win rate
10.3%
30.8%
Draw rate
17.2%
26.9%
Loss rate
72.4%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
26
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
0.77
67.3%
Scoring rate
50.9%
38.8%
BTTS rate
43.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.59
65.4%
Scoring rate
41.4%
38.5%
BTTS rate
37.9%
49
History Matches
57
1.33
Goals Mean
0.77
1.38
Goals Std
1.06
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
50.9%
36.7%
Scored 2+ rate
15.8%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
5.3%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.59
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.78
Goals against per game
1.44
55.1%
Conceding rate
84.2%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.62
53.8%
Conceding rate
89.7%
49
History Matches
57
0.78
Conceded Mean
1.44
0.84
Conceded Std
0.97
18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.9%
4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
49.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
58.6%
44.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
49.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
58.6%
44.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
57
0.97
Result entropy
0.90
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.39
2.70
Stability score
10.48
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
48
Eligible Matches
57
15
Lead Matches
6
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.67
11
Trailing Matches
22
36.4%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
182.0
Rest days
169.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.75
19
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.13
Portability PPG Range
0.15
88.89
Portability Score
86.80
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO168.6
PPG0.82
GF0.55
GA-0.66
PPG1.09
PPG1.80
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate29.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate35.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate16.5%
Scored 2+ rate20.9%
Scored 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.91
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.17
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.66
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate29.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score-7.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate36.7%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate27.3%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score2.09
Rest days13.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.88
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.80
Current Team ELO168.6
Current Opponent ELO-168.6
Current ELO Difference337.2
Expected score0.45
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance11.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Boiro and Arenteiro meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Boiro win 44.2%, draw 28.1%, Arenteiro win 27.7%. The pick is Boiro win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.2%. Both teams to score: 44.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.