ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Villalbés vs Somozas

Villalbés Home · Elo 1,519
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Somozas Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Villalbés win
Villalbés winPick
39.4%
Draw
32.1%
Somozas win
28.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.4%
Under 2.559.6%

How much we know

Villalbés history53 matches
Somozas history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Villalbés are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,519 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.02 goals a game over 53 matches for Villalbés, against 1.00 over 49 for Somozas.

  • Villalbés concede fewer

    Villalbés concede 0.96 a game, Somozas 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    32% of Villalbés matches, against 37% for Somozas. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villalbés
Somozas@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.9
ELO
1508.5
53
ELO · Matches
49
1518.9
Current Team ELO
1508.5
1508.5
Current Opponent ELO
1518.9
10.45
Current ELO Difference
-10.45
0.52
Expected score
0.48
53
History Matches
49
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
51.08
Overperformance
50.52
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
49
1.45
PPG
1.37
35.8%
Win rate
34.7%
37.7%
Draw rate
32.7%
26.4%
Loss rate
32.7%
54.7%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.7%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.54
PPG
1.20
42.3%
Win rate
32.0%
26.9%
Draw rate
24.0%
30.8%
Loss rate
44.0%
57.7%
Over 1.5 rate
52.0%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.00
62.3%
Scoring rate
67.3%
34.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.12
Goals for per game
0.88
57.7%
Scoring rate
52.0%
26.9%
BTTS rate
32.0%
53
History Matches
49
1.02
Goals Mean
1.00
1.05
Goals Std
0.88
62.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
26.4%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
9.4%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.96
Goals against per game
1.08
50.9%
Conceding rate
65.3%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.24
53.8%
Conceding rate
64.0%
53
History Matches
49
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.27
Conceded Std
1.16
26.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.5%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.60
1.04
Stability score
0.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
49
12
Lead Matches
16
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.88
11
Trailing Matches
15
36.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
169.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.45
83.21
Portability Score
68.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO10.45
PPG0.09
GF0.02
GA-0.12
PPG0.34
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.36
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.26
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate2.1%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate3.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score14.37
Rest days-13.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO10.45
Current Opponent ELO-10.45
Current ELO Difference20.90
Expected score0.03
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Villalbés

D
Villalbés1–1Alondras25 Oct · home
Pick: Villalbés 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Somozas

D
Celtiga1–1Somozas24 Oct · away
Pick: Somozas 44% · missed
W
Somozas2–1Sarriana4 Oct · home
Pick: Sarriana 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Villalbés and Somozas meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Villalbés win 39.4%, draw 32.1%, Somozas win 28.5%. The pick is Villalbés win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.4%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.