ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Estradense vs Celta de Vigo III

Estradense Home · Elo 1,529
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Celta de Vigo III Away · Elo 1,516
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Estradense win
Estradense winPick
58.5%
Draw
21.8%
Celta de Vigo III win
19.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%

How much we know

Estradense history57 matches
Celta de Vigo III history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Estradense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,529 against 1,516. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 57 matches for Estradense, against 1.50 over 48 for Celta de Vigo III.

  • Defences are close

    Estradense concede 1.18 a game, Celta de Vigo III 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Estradense matches, against 52% for Celta de Vigo III. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Estradense
Celta de Vigo III@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.0
ELO
1516.1
57
ELO · Matches
48
1529.0
Current Team ELO
1516.1
1516.1
Current Opponent ELO
1529.0
12.87
Current ELO Difference
-12.87
0.52
Expected score
0.48
57
History Matches
48
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.71
Overperformance
51.23
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
48
1.47
PPG
1.33
40.4%
Win rate
31.3%
26.3%
Draw rate
39.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
29.2%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
22.8%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
24
1.86
PPG
1.13
53.6%
Win rate
20.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
21.4%
Loss rate
29.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
28
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.50
73.7%
Scoring rate
72.9%
54.4%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.04
67.9%
Scoring rate
62.5%
46.4%
BTTS rate
54.2%
57
History Matches
48
1.37
Goals Mean
1.50
1.10
Goals Std
1.43
73.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
45.6%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.27
73.7%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.04
67.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
57
History Matches
48
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.27
0.98
Conceded Std
1.13
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
5.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
48
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.76
1.35
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
48
22
Lead Matches
13
68.2%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.82
12
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
26.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.96
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.53
Portability PPG Range
0.69
67.30
Portability Score
59.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO12.87
PPG0.14
GF-0.13
GA-0.10
PPG0.73
PPG-0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate0.8%
Scored 2+ rate8.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.95
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score0.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.27
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score8.04
Rest days-90.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO12.87
Current Opponent ELO-12.87
Current ELO Difference25.74
Expected score0.04
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Estradense

W
Estradense3–2Viveiro25 Oct · home
Pick: Estradense 55% · hit
W
Estradense3–2Boiro4 Oct · home
Pick: Estradense 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Celta de Vigo III

L
Boiro1–0Celta de Vigo III25 Oct · away
Pick: Boiro 43% · hit
W
Celta de Vigo III3–2Atlético Arteixo4 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Arteixo 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Estradense and Celta de Vigo III meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Estradense win 58.5%, draw 21.8%, Celta de Vigo III win 19.7%. The pick is Estradense win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.