ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Osnabrück U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 Home · Elo 1,582
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Osnabrück U19 Away · Elo 1,377
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 win
Borussia Dortmund U19 winPick
77.2%
Draw
11.8%
Osnabrück U19 win
11.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.8%
Under 2.526.2%

How much we know

Borussia Dortmund U19 history49 matches
Osnabrück U19 history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Borussia Dortmund U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Borussia Dortmund U19 are rated 205 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,582 against 1,377. On rating alone Borussia Dortmund U19 would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Borussia Dortmund U19 score far more

    2.31 goals a game over 49 matches for Borussia Dortmund U19, against 1.25 over 40 for Osnabrück U19.

  • Borussia Dortmund U19 concede fewer

    Borussia Dortmund U19 concede 1.65 a game, Osnabrück U19 2.33.

  • Borussia Dortmund U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of Borussia Dortmund U19 matches, against 65% for Osnabrück U19. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Borussia Dortmund U19
Osnabrück U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1581.7
ELO
1377.2
49
ELO · Matches
40
1581.7
Current Team ELO
1377.2
1377.2
Current Opponent ELO
1581.7
204.6
Current ELO Difference
-204.6
0.76
Expected score
0.24
49
History Matches
40
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.15
55.42
Overperformance
40.22
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.40
2.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.60
2.80
Goals for per game
0.60
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
40
1.82
PPG
0.65
57.1%
Win rate
15.0%
10.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
32.7%
Loss rate
65.0%
93.9%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
75.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
61.2%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
19
1.83
PPG
0.79
56.5%
Win rate
21.1%
13.0%
Draw rate
15.8%
30.4%
Loss rate
63.2%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
73.7%
60.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
23
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.31
Goals for per game
1.25
81.6%
Scoring rate
65.0%
53.1%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.30
Goals for per game
1.26
82.6%
Scoring rate
63.2%
52.2%
BTTS rate
52.6%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
40
2.31
Goals Mean
1.25
1.54
Goals Std
1.48
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
65.0%
67.3%
Scored 2+ rate
27.5%
51.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.0%
2.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
2.33
69.4%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.61
Goals against per game
2.53
69.6%
Conceding rate
84.2%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.50
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
40
1.65
Conceded Mean
2.33
1.42
Conceded Std
1.42
53.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
72.5%
26.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.5%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
2.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
40
0.84
Result entropy
0.81
2.37
Goal Difference Std
1.84
16.43
Stability score
19.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
40
23
Lead Matches
7
91.3%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.76
15
Trailing Matches
17
20.0%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
1.10
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.13
Rest days
76.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.76
15
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.42
Portability PPG Range
0.50
50.05
Portability Score
66.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO204.6
PPG1.17
GF1.06
GA-0.67
PPG2.50
PPG1.04
PPG2.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate14.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches9
Goals Mean1.06
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate16.6%
Scored 2+ rate39.8%
Scored 3+ rate36.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.67
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches9
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.53
Stability score-2.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.38
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate19.9%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate8.2%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.92
Portability Score-16.61
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.99
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match1.55
Current Team ELO204.6
Current Opponent ELO-204.6
Current ELO Difference409.1
Expected score0.53
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance15.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Borussia Dortmund U19

W
Borussia Dortmund U192–1MSV Duisburg U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 55% · hit
D
Schalke 04 U190–0Borussia Dortmund U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 45% · missed
W
Sabah U190–2Borussia Dortmund U1920 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 61% · hit
W
Borussia Dortmund U196–2RW Oberhausen U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 70% · hit
W
Bodø / Glimt U190–5Borussia Dortmund U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 70% · hit

Osnabrück U19

L
Osnabrück U190–2RW Oberhausen U191 Nov · home
Pick: Osnabrück U19 48% · missed
L
Fortuna Düsseldorf U193–1Osnabrück U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 73% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 and Osnabrück U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Borussia Dortmund U19 win 77.2%, draw 11.8%, Osnabrück U19 win 11.1%. The pick is Borussia Dortmund U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.8%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.