ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie E Czechia Group E - 15 2026

Břeclav vs Bzenec

Břeclav Home · Elo 1,448
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bzenec Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Břeclav win
Břeclav winPick
53.7%
Draw
17.5%
Bzenec win
28.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%

How much we know

Břeclav history47 matches
Bzenec history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Břeclav are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bzenec are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,448. On rating alone Bzenec would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Bzenec score far more

    1.06 goals a game over 47 matches for Břeclav, against 1.88 over 50 for Bzenec.

  • Břeclav concede fewer

    Břeclav concede 1.57 a game, Bzenec 1.96.

  • Bzenec games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Břeclav matches, against 78% for Bzenec. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Břeclav
Bzenec
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.7
ELO
1507.8
47
ELO · Matches
50
1447.7
Current Team ELO
1507.8
1507.8
Current Opponent ELO
1447.7
-60.09
Current ELO Difference
60.09
0.41
Expected score
0.59
47
History Matches
50
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.01
45.74
Overperformance
50.50
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
2.01
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.68
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
50
1.13
PPG
1.52
29.8%
Win rate
48.0%
23.4%
Draw rate
8.0%
46.8%
Loss rate
44.0%
63.8%
Over 1.5 rate
94.0%
46.8%
Over 2.5 rate
78.0%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
52.0%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
25
1.27
PPG
1.08
36.4%
Win rate
36.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
45.5%
Loss rate
64.0%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
96.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
84.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
56.0%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
22
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.88
59.6%
Scoring rate
74.0%
42.6%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.48
68.2%
Scoring rate
64.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.67
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
47
History Matches
50
1.06
Goals Mean
1.88
1.06
Goals Std
1.63
59.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.0%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
56.0%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
32.0%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.96
70.2%
Conceding rate
82.0%
1.32
Goals against per game
2.52
72.7%
Conceding rate
88.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
3.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
50
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.96
1.54
Conceded Std
1.50
44.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.0%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.0%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
2.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
50
0.96
Result entropy
0.83
1.76
Goal Difference Std
2.64
3.88
Stability score
16.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
12
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
21
14.3%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
19.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.94
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.12
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
20
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
2
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.67
5
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.71
84.85
Portability Score
62.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-60.09
PPG-0.39
GF-0.82
GA-0.39
PPG1.00
PPG0.19
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate15.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.82
Goals Std-0.57
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.88
Stability score-12.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.31
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score22.29
Rest days6.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-60.09
Current Opponent ELO60.09
Current ELO Difference-120.2
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Břeclav

L
Tatran Všechovice5–0Břeclav31 Oct · away
Pick: Tatran Všechovice 64% · hit
L
Břeclav0–2Slavičín24 Oct · home
Pick: Břeclav 51% · missed
L
Nové Sady2–0Břeclav17 Oct · away
Pick: Břeclav 48% · missed
D
Kozlovice1–1Břeclav4 Oct · away
Pick: Kozlovice 58% · missed
W
Baťov1–2Břeclav29 Aug · away
Pick: Břeclav 42% · hit

Bzenec

D
Bzenec2–2Holešov31 Oct · home
Pick: Holešov 40% · missed
W
Brumov1–3Bzenec25 Oct · away
Pick: Brumov 50% · missed
W
Bzenec7–0Baťov17 Oct · home
Pick: Bzenec 52% · hit
L
Bzenec3–4Slavičín29 Aug · home
Pick: Bzenec 38% · missed
L
Bzenec1–4Třinec26 Aug · home
Pick: Třinec 40% · hit

About this match

Břeclav and Bzenec meet in 4. liga - Divizie E on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Břeclav win 53.7%, draw 17.5%, Bzenec win 28.8%. The pick is Břeclav win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.7%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.